The Republican Senate primary in Texas has barely started, but the knives are out. Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton are tearing each other apart in a feud that’s personal, public, and growing nastier by the week. And the big question now is: Could the GOP’s demolition derby pose an opening for Democrats?
Two new polls suggest it’s possible. If Paxton, the more scandal-plagued of the two, wins the GOP nomination—as current polling indicates—he could be vulnerable in a general election against Democrat Colin Allred, a former member of the House. Allred, who challenged Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 and lost by more than 8 percentage points, has hinted he might take another swing.
One GOP internal poll, obtained by the Houston Chronicle, showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 17 points in a primary matchup, 50% to 33%. But in a general election, the same poll had Allred beating Paxton by a stunning 15 points, 52% to 37%. A separate survey, commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC, had Paxton up 16 points on Cornyn in the primary and found that while Cornyn led Allred by 6 points, Paxton was trailing Allred by 1 point.
If you’ve watched Texas politics for any length of time, you’ve seen this movie before. Every few years, Democrats hope a rising star—Wendy Davis, Beto O’Rourke, and now maybe Allred again—can finally flip Texas blue, whether it’s the governor’s mansion or a Senate seat. And every few years, they fall short.
Still, Texas’ 2026 Senate election will draw national attention again. Texas is simply too big and too pivotal to ignore, and the GOP primary is shaping up to be a cash-burning brawl that could leave the eventual nominee bloodied and broke. Allred, for his part, didn’t run a bad campaign last time, and there’s every reason to believe some Democrats want him to take another swing.
But let’s be real: It’s far too early to take these general election polls seriously. Also, internal polls are largely untrustworthy. The parties behind them rarely don’t have a vested interest in an election outcome, and the polls’ results are almost always disclosed to push a specific narrative.
Also, Allred has already lost one Texas Senate race, and no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. Furthermore, hopes that the state’s growing Latino population would shift the state toward Democrats have yet to materialize. And while Paxton may be damaged, so was Cruz. A few polls even showed Allred ahead late in last year’s race—and Cruz still beat him.
That said, Democrats do have reasons for cautious optimism in 2026. For now, they can sit back and watch Cornyn and Paxton tear each other to shreds in a primary that’s already toxic. It’s not just messy—it’s expensive. And it could fracture the party enough to force outside GOP groups and President Donald Trump to step in.
Elsewhere in the South, the landscape is shifting. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision to sit out Georgia’s Senate race just improved Democrat Jon Ossoff’s odds for reelection. In North Carolina, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper could run for Senate, putting another Republican-held seat in play.
It’s still a steep climb, though. Democrats need to net four seats to flip the Senate, but the national environment in 2026 might help. Election prognosticator Nate Silver recently pointed out that the average midterm advantage for the out-of-power party since 1994 is 4.4 points in the House national popular vote. But with Trump’s persistent unpopularity and Democrats’ overperformance in 2025’s elections, that advantage could swell, perhaps resembling the blue wave of 2018, where Democrats led Republicans by 8.6 points in the House popular vote.
A wave like that would change the Senate map. North Carolina and Georgia would lean Democratic rather than be toss-ups, according to Silver, and while Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas would still lean Republican, none would be off the board.
There are some wild cards too. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, could attempt a comeback against Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Meanwhile, in Alaska, the state’s ranked-choice voting system gives a moderate Democrat—possibly former Rep. Mary Peltola—a fighting chance against incumbent Dan Sullivan, whose approval numbers are soft.
Some races may be looking easier as well. Ossoff is surely breathing easier with Kemp out. In New Hampshire, the GOP failed to recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, leaving the party likely to recycle Scott Brown, who has lost Senate races in both Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
Long term, the map looks better. As Silver noted, between 2026 and 2028, four Senate races will take place in presidential battlegrounds—one each in Maine (2026) and Wisconsin (2028), and two in North Carolina (2026 and 2028). If Democrats flip three of those four and win back the White House, he argued, they’d likely secure a governing trifecta in 2028.
It won’t be easy. Texas probably won’t be the state to break the GOP’s stranglehold on the Senate. But it might, just maybe, help loosen it.