Author name: moderat ereport

ASIA: The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: • NIKKEI 225 decreased 371.60 points or -0.88% to 41,938.89 • Shanghai decreased 44.577 points or -1.16% to 3,813.557 • Hang Seng decreased 153.12 points or -0.60% to 25,343.43 • ASX 200 decreased 161.80 points or -1.82% to 8,738.80 • SENSEX increased 409.83 points or 0.51% to 80,567.71 • Nifty50 increased 135.45 points or 0.55% to 24,715.05 The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today: • AUDUSD increased 0.00299 or 0.46% to 0.65485 • NZDUSD increased 0.00173 or 0.30% to 0.58784 • USDJPY decreased 0.601 or -0.40% to 147.974 • USDCNY increased 0.00158 or 0.02% to 7.13986 The above data was collected around 12:15 EST. Precious Metals: • Gold increased 30.23 USD/t oz. or 0.86% to 3,565.01 • Silver increased 0.303 USD/t. oz. or 0.74% to 41.213 The above data was collected around 12:18 EST. EUROPE/EMEA: The major Europe stock markets had a green day today: • CAC 40 increased 65.46 points or 0.86% to 7,719.71 • FTSE 100 increased 61.30 points or 0.67% to 9,177.99 • DAX 30 increased 107.47 points or 0.46% to 23,594.80 The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today: • EURUSD increased 0.0043 or 0.37% to 1.16757 • GBPUSD increased 0.00703 or 0.53% to 1.34515 • USDCHF decreased 0.00207 or -0.26% to 0.80324 The above data was collected around 13:01 EST. US/AMERICAS: US Market Closings: Dow declined by 24.58 points (-0.05%) to 45,271.23 S&P 500 advanced by 32.72 points (+0.51%) to 6,448.26 NASDAQ advanced by 218.10 points (+1.03%) to 21,497.73 Russell 2000 declined by 3.11 points (-0.13%) to 2,349.10 Canada Market Closings: TSX Composite advanced by 136.86 points (+0.48%) to 28,752.48 TSX 60 advanced by 7.90 points (+0.47%) to 1,704.79 Brazil Market Closing: Bovespa declined by 553.18 points (-0.39%) to 139,781.98 ENERGY: The oil markets had a mixed day today: • Crude Oil decreased 1.598 USD/BBL or -2.44% to 63.992 • Brent decreased 1.469 USD/BBL or -2.12% to 67.671 • Natural gas increased 0.0356 USD/MMBtu or 1.18% to 3.0446 • Gasoline decreased 0.0261 USD/GAL or -1.28% to 2.0164 • Heating oil decreased 0.0144 USD/GAL or -0.61% to 2.3600 The above data was collected around 13:03 EST. • Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (1.18%), Orange Juice (1.93%), Palladium (2.06%) and Platinum (2.33%) • Top commodity losers: Canola (-1.85%), Crude Oil (-2.44%), Brent (-2.12%) and Oat (-1.80%) The above data was collected around 13:11 EST. BONDS: Japan 1.6370% (+3.06bp), US 2’s 3.61% (-0.033%), US 10’s 4.2080% (-5.5bps); US 30’s 4.89 (-0.067%), Bunds 2.7370% (-5.29bp), France 3.5410% (-4.44bp), Italy 3.640% (-7.07bp), Turkey 32.815% (+259.5bp), Greece 3.469% (-5.2bp), Portugal 3.178% (-6.3bp); Spain 3.345% (-5.8bp) and UK Gilts 4.7490% (-6.03bp) The above data was collected around 13:15 EST.

Leer en Español Global economy to lose steam this year: The FocusEconomics World GDP Consensus Forecast—based on 3,500 individual projections for GDP growth across 198 countries—shows that the global economy is on track for its slowest growth since the Covid-19 slump of 2020 this year, dragged down by softer expansions in major players like Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Russia and the U.S. But the picture isn’t bleak everywhere—Africa and the Middle East are set to accelerate, powered by rising OPEC+ oil output quotas that are giving regional GDP a welcome boost.   Forecasts display U-shaped trend: As the graph below shows, our World GDP Consensus Forecast was slashed in the wake of Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, but has since recovered somewhat. Economic activity in many parts of the world has proved more resilient than expected, higher tariffs in the U.S. are taking a while to filter through to prices, and the global AI boom is girding tech exports and investment.  G20 countries see divergent trend: The below graph shows the evolution of our 2025 GDP growth forecasts for select G20 countries over the last six months. Argentina has seen the largest upgrade, as the government’s aggressive reform agenda has borne fruit. China’s forecasts have also been upgraded—superficially surprising, given the country has been subjected to hefty new U.S. tariffs. Chinese economic activity has been boosted by record government bond issuance, strong global electronics demand, rapid electric-vehicle-sector growth, export frontloading and rerouting to avoid U.S. tariffs, and an expanded trade-in scheme that boosted household spending. At the other end of the spectrum are the economies of South Korea and Mexico, both of which are likely to suffer fallout from a more protectionist U.S.   Insight from our panelists:  On the outlook for the global economy, EIU analysts said: US trade protectionism is being met mostly with restraint in terms of retaliation, but deep policy uncertainty is moving the global economy into a worse equilibrium. The risk of policy missteps will be high in this environment of rapid change. Although we forecast that global short-term interest rates will continue to fall, the unpredictable application of US tariffs will make it difficult for central banks to decipher inflation trends. Under the second Trump administration, the US is working to rebalance its economic and security relations. The manner in which the agenda is being pursued, however, will strain traditional alliances and drive geopolitical and economic realignment. Conflict risk and geopolitical brinkmanship will be key features of the global landscape, contributing to high risk premia and sustaining the risk of commodity price shocks.  On U.S. trade policy, ING’s Carsten Brzeski said: “Trump is demanding that trading partners show him the money in the form of investment pledges or face astronomically high tariffs. […] It’s unclear whether investment aspects of trade talks will move beyond headline figures and vague commitments. Unlike tariffs, which are straightforward to enforce, investment pledges and purchase commitments are harder to monitor, especially since entities like the EU lack the authority to guarantee them, leaving delivery to corporations. Japan and South Korea’s promises are mainly in the form of loans. This raises questions about how the U.S. might respond if countries fall short. And even with a deal – and I’m looking at you, Switzerland – the tariff issue persists. For Trump, tariffs are a versatile tool, used well beyond trade balance concerns. We can only guess at the long-term implications of such economic power play. Disrupted supply chains, strained diplomatic ties, economic selfishness, and less efficient global trade are just a few things to come to mind.”  Our latest analysis:  Israel’s economy clocked a surprise contraction in Q2.  Japan’s exports worsened again in July.  The post Get the latest global GDP growth forecasts via our daily tracker appeared first on FocusEconomics.

QUESTION: I asked GOK who thinks the stock market will crash. It gave a list of people all expecting a crash. It also noted that Buffet was bearish and J.P. Morgan was calling for a 20% drop. The reasons were “High valuations, particularly in tech and AI, are compared to historical bubbles (e.g., dot-com, railroads). Recession fears, driven by tariffs, high interest rates, and consumer debt, are seen as potential catalysts. Ongoing conflicts (e.g., Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) and trade policy shifts add volatility.” It even said: “Samuel Benner’s Historical Chart (Referenced on Medium): Prediction: A 150-year-old financial cycle chart by Samuel Benner, cited in a Medium article, has historically predicted major crashes, including the Great Depression, dot-com bust, and 2020 COVID crash. It suggests warning signs for a potential crash in 2025.” You seem to be standing alone. What do you think about the Benner chart? SY ANSWER: That’s good. The majority is always wrong. Just as Rogoff said, the forecasts at Davos are always wrong. Most of these people forecast markets based on personal opinion, and they tend to be very myopic. They do not look at the world because they believe they can forecast in isolation. The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the WSJ in 1933. Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.