Author name: moderat ereport

CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality. Can we see that? I can’t… Here’s y/y growth rate of the official series and the seasonally adjusted series. Figure 1: Year-on-year growth rate in seasonally adjusted NFP (blue), and in not seasonally adjusted NFP (tan). Growth rates calculated using log differences. Source:  BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations. The seasonally adjusted series is actually above the y/y not seasonally adjusted series! What about the level? Figure 2: Seasonally adjusted NFP (blue),  not seasonally adjusted NFP (tan), not seasonally adjusted NFP adjusted by author using X-13 (in logs, 2021M07-2025M07) (green).  Source:  BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations. Another reason to think the BLS numbers have not been “massaged”: the July release numbers better track ADP, on private NFP. Figure 3: Private nonfarm payroll employment, July release (bold black), Jun release (purple), ADP July release (green), all s.a.,  in logs, 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations. In any case, there are usually big NFP misses around turning points. Civilian employment — which is not revised month to month — peaked in April.    

As of 1:35PM CT today, the President has fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, within 6 hours of the latest employment release. So what all of feared about the safety of the independence of our economic statistical agencies has come to pass. We might as well delegate the employment numbers to Kevin Hassett at the NEC. From NBC: President Donald Trump on Friday ordered the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hours after a stunning government report showed that hiring had slowed down significantly over the past three months. Taking to Truth Social, he attacked Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the BLS. He claimed that the country’s jobs reports “are being produced by Biden appointee” and ordered his administration to terminate her. Needless to say, his assertions that the numbers were manipulated are without merit. With no hint of irony, he wrote: “We need accurate Jobs Numbers,” … “She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes.” At this rate, if a recession occurs within the next 3.5 years, we’ll not see a negative GDP print let alone employment print. And if you thought this was unimportant to you, remember BLS calculates the CPI used for Social Security COLAs, as well as the headline CPI used to calculate TIPS yields. Oh, also the inflation adjustments to the marginal tax rate thresholds…