Economic News

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Connietown.mp4

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

ASIA: The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: • NIKKEI 225 increased 671.41 points or 1.34% to 50,883.68 • Shanghai increased 38.512 points or 0.97% to 4,007.76 • Hang Seng increased 550.49 points or 2.12% to 26,485.90 • ASX 200 increased 26.30 points or 0.30% to 8,828.30 • SENSEX decreased 148.14 points or -0.18% to 83,311.01 • Nifty50 decreased 87.95 points or -0.34% to 25,509.70 The major Asian currency markets had a negative day today: • AUDUSD decreased 0.00288 or -0.44% to 0.64760 • NZDUSD decreased 0.00267 or -0.47% to 0.56333 • USDJPY decreased 1.186 or -0.77% to 152.937 • USDCNY decreased 0.00959 or -0.13% to 7.12156 The above data was collected around 12:46 EST. Precious Metals: • Gold increased 2.32 USD/t oz. or 0.06% to 3,982.52 • Silver increased 0.004 USD/t. oz. or 0.01% to 47.974 The above data was collected around 12:47 EST. EUROPE/EMEA: The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today: • CAC 40 decreased 109.46 points or -1.36% to 7,964.77 • FTSE 100 decreased 41.30 points or -0.42% to 9,735.78 • DAX 30 decreased 315.72 points or -1.31% to 23,734.02 The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today: • EURUSD increased 0.00468 or 0.41% to 1.15392 • GBPUSD increased 0.00729 or 0.56% to 1.31233 • USDCHF decreased 0.00282 or -0.35% to 0.80732 The above data was collected around 12:54 EST. US/AMERICAS: US Market Closings: Dow declined by 398.70 points (-0.84%) to 46,912.30 S&P 500 declined by 75.97 points (-1.12%) to 6,720.32 NASDAQ declined by 445.81 points (-1.90%) to 23,053.99 Russell 2000 declined by 45.95 points (-1.86%) to 2,418.83 VIX rose by 1.49 points (+8.27%) to 19.50 Canada Market Closings: TSX Composite declined by 234.89 points (-0.78%) to 29,868.59 TSX 60 declined by 14.53 points (-0.82%) to 1,761.60 Brazil Market Closing: Bovespa advanced by 249.02 points (+0.16%) to 153,543.46 ENERGY: The oil markets had a mixed day today: • Crude Oil decreased 0.29 USD/BBL or -0.49% to 59.310 • Brent decreased 0.264 USD/BBL or -0.42% to 63.256 • Natural gas increased 0.027 USD/MMBtu or 0.64% to 4.2590 • Gasoline increased 0.0386 USD/GAL or 2.02% to 1.9508 • Heating oil increased 0.0586 USD/GAL or 2.41% to 2.4911 The above data was collected around 13:00 EST. • Top commodity gainers: Gasoline (2.02%), Heating Oil (2.41%), Rice (1.08%) and Palm Oil (0.97%) • Top commodity losers: Orange Juice (-12.93%), Coffee (-4.37%), Wheat (-3.15%) and Cocoa (-3.54%) The above data was collected around 13:08 EST. BONDS: Japan 1.6840% (+1.72bp), US 2’s 3.57% (-0.070%), US 10’s 4.0880% (-7.2bps); US 30’s 4.69 (-0.055%), Bunds 2.6609% (-1.14bp), France 3.444% (-1.65bp), Italy 3.4180% (-0.74bp), Turkey 29.85% (+1bp), Greece 3.319% (+0.5bp), Portugal 3.024% (-3.7bp); Spain 3.176% (-0.7bp) and UK Gilts 4.4380% (-2.66bp) The above data was collected around 13:12 EST.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Connietown.mp4

ASIA: The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: • NIKKEI 225 increased 671.41 points or 1.34% to 50,883.68 • Shanghai increased 38.512 points or 0.97% to 4,007.76 • Hang Seng increased 550.49 points or 2.12% to 26,485.90 • ASX 200 increased 26.30 points or 0.30% to 8,828.30 • SENSEX decreased 148.14 points or -0.18% to 83,311.01 • Nifty50 decreased 87.95 points or -0.34% to 25,509.70 The major Asian currency markets had a negative day today: • AUDUSD decreased 0.00288 or -0.44% to 0.64760 • NZDUSD decreased 0.00267 or -0.47% to 0.56333 • USDJPY decreased 1.186 or -0.77% to 152.937 • USDCNY decreased 0.00959 or -0.13% to 7.12156 The above data was collected around 12:46 EST. Precious Metals: • Gold increased 2.32 USD/t oz. or 0.06% to 3,982.52 • Silver increased 0.004 USD/t. oz. or 0.01% to 47.974 The above data was collected around 12:47 EST. EUROPE/EMEA: The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today: • CAC 40 decreased 109.46 points or -1.36% to 7,964.77 • FTSE 100 decreased 41.30 points or -0.42% to 9,735.78 • DAX 30 decreased 315.72 points or -1.31% to 23,734.02 The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today: • EURUSD increased 0.00468 or 0.41% to 1.15392 • GBPUSD increased 0.00729 or 0.56% to 1.31233 • USDCHF decreased 0.00282 or -0.35% to 0.80732 The above data was collected around 12:54 EST. US/AMERICAS: US Market Closings: Dow declined by 398.70 points (-0.84%) to 46,912.30 S&P 500 declined by 75.97 points (-1.12%) to 6,720.32 NASDAQ declined by 445.81 points (-1.90%) to 23,053.99 Russell 2000 declined by 45.95 points (-1.86%) to 2,418.83 VIX rose by 1.49 points (+8.27%) to 19.50 Canada Market Closings: TSX Composite declined by 234.89 points (-0.78%) to 29,868.59 TSX 60 declined by 14.53 points (-0.82%) to 1,761.60 Brazil Market Closing: Bovespa advanced by 249.02 points (+0.16%) to 153,543.46 ENERGY: The oil markets had a mixed day today: • Crude Oil decreased 0.29 USD/BBL or -0.49% to 59.310 • Brent decreased 0.264 USD/BBL or -0.42% to 63.256 • Natural gas increased 0.027 USD/MMBtu or 0.64% to 4.2590 • Gasoline increased 0.0386 USD/GAL or 2.02% to 1.9508 • Heating oil increased 0.0586 USD/GAL or 2.41% to 2.4911 The above data was collected around 13:00 EST. • Top commodity gainers: Gasoline (2.02%), Heating Oil (2.41%), Rice (1.08%) and Palm Oil (0.97%) • Top commodity losers: Orange Juice (-12.93%), Coffee (-4.37%), Wheat (-3.15%) and Cocoa (-3.54%) The above data was collected around 13:08 EST. BONDS: Japan 1.6840% (+1.72bp), US 2’s 3.57% (-0.070%), US 10’s 4.0880% (-7.2bps); US 30’s 4.69 (-0.055%), Bunds 2.6609% (-1.14bp), France 3.444% (-1.65bp), Italy 3.4180% (-0.74bp), Turkey 29.85% (+1bp), Greece 3.319% (+0.5bp), Portugal 3.024% (-3.7bp); Spain 3.176% (-0.7bp) and UK Gilts 4.4380% (-2.66bp) The above data was collected around 13:12 EST.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

ASIA: The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: • NIKKEI 225 increased 671.41 points or 1.34% to 50,883.68 • Shanghai increased 38.512 points or 0.97% to 4,007.76 • Hang Seng increased 550.49 points or 2.12% to 26,485.90 • ASX 200 increased 26.30 points or 0.30% to 8,828.30 • SENSEX decreased 148.14 points or -0.18% to 83,311.01 • Nifty50 decreased 87.95 points or -0.34% to 25,509.70 The major Asian currency markets had a negative day today: • AUDUSD decreased 0.00288 or -0.44% to 0.64760 • NZDUSD decreased 0.00267 or -0.47% to 0.56333 • USDJPY decreased 1.186 or -0.77% to 152.937 • USDCNY decreased 0.00959 or -0.13% to 7.12156 The above data was collected around 12:46 EST. Precious Metals: • Gold increased 2.32 USD/t oz. or 0.06% to 3,982.52 • Silver increased 0.004 USD/t. oz. or 0.01% to 47.974 The above data was collected around 12:47 EST. EUROPE/EMEA: The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today: • CAC 40 decreased 109.46 points or -1.36% to 7,964.77 • FTSE 100 decreased 41.30 points or -0.42% to 9,735.78 • DAX 30 decreased 315.72 points or -1.31% to 23,734.02 The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today: • EURUSD increased 0.00468 or 0.41% to 1.15392 • GBPUSD increased 0.00729 or 0.56% to 1.31233 • USDCHF decreased 0.00282 or -0.35% to 0.80732 The above data was collected around 12:54 EST. US/AMERICAS: US Market Closings: Dow declined by 398.70 points (-0.84%) to 46,912.30 S&P 500 declined by 75.97 points (-1.12%) to 6,720.32 NASDAQ declined by 445.81 points (-1.90%) to 23,053.99 Russell 2000 declined by 45.95 points (-1.86%) to 2,418.83 VIX rose by 1.49 points (+8.27%) to 19.50 Canada Market Closings: TSX Composite declined by 234.89 points (-0.78%) to 29,868.59 TSX 60 declined by 14.53 points (-0.82%) to 1,761.60 Brazil Market Closing: Bovespa advanced by 249.02 points (+0.16%) to 153,543.46 ENERGY: The oil markets had a mixed day today: • Crude Oil decreased 0.29 USD/BBL or -0.49% to 59.310 • Brent decreased 0.264 USD/BBL or -0.42% to 63.256 • Natural gas increased 0.027 USD/MMBtu or 0.64% to 4.2590 • Gasoline increased 0.0386 USD/GAL or 2.02% to 1.9508 • Heating oil increased 0.0586 USD/GAL or 2.41% to 2.4911 The above data was collected around 13:00 EST. • Top commodity gainers: Gasoline (2.02%), Heating Oil (2.41%), Rice (1.08%) and Palm Oil (0.97%) • Top commodity losers: Orange Juice (-12.93%), Coffee (-4.37%), Wheat (-3.15%) and Cocoa (-3.54%) The above data was collected around 13:08 EST. BONDS: Japan 1.6840% (+1.72bp), US 2’s 3.57% (-0.070%), US 10’s 4.0880% (-7.2bps); US 30’s 4.69 (-0.055%), Bunds 2.6609% (-1.14bp), France 3.444% (-1.65bp), Italy 3.4180% (-0.74bp), Turkey 29.85% (+1bp), Greece 3.319% (+0.5bp), Portugal 3.024% (-3.7bp); Spain 3.176% (-0.7bp) and UK Gilts 4.4380% (-2.66bp) The above data was collected around 13:12 EST.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Connietown.mp4