Economic News

Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret  spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.” Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats. Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden. It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others. Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans. Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records. We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG — FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025 Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred. “Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role. Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go. Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned. Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive. “If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned. The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret  spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.” Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats. Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden. It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others. Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans. Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records. We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG — FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025 Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred. “Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role. Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go. Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned. Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive. “If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned. The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret  spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.” Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats. Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden. It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others. Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans. Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records. We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG — FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025 Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred. “Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role. Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go. Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned. Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive. “If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned. The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret  spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.” Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats. Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden. It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others. Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans. Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records. We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG — FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025 Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred. “Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role. Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go. Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned. Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive. “If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned. The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.

Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret  spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.” Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats. Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden. It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others. Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans. Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records. We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG — FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025 Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred. “Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role. Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go. Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned. Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive. “If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned. The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.