The UK should press ahead with the inevitable on tax
Delays in dealing with fiscal pressures risk further damage to household consumption, corporate investment and overall growth
Economic News
Trump’s tariff shambles is a helpful warning to the world
No sensible government would think of emulating his trade policies as they have his other plans
Indonesia says EU deforestation law is still unworkable
Jakarta’s push for further postponement comes as EU countries call for ‘onerous’ rules to be simplified
Global copper market weighs impact of Trump tariff threat
LME price sinks as traders bet any levies will ultimately hit demand for industrial metal
Copper tariffs are the wrong answer to the right question
Trade levies could solve the supply-demand problem but they are a blunt tool
GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027. These estimates based on a VAR(2) using annual data, net unauthorized immigration as a percent of the previous-year U.S. population, annual growth rate of nonfarm payroll employment, the PCE annual inflation rate, and yearly GDP growth. Source: Orrenius et al. (2025). PCE inflation is 15 bps and 6 bps higher in 2026 and 2027 under baseline.
Trump threatens to impose 50% tariff on Brazil
US president accuses country of launching a ‘witch-hunt’ against its former leader Jair Bolsonaro
Fed says most policymakers see risks tariffs will cause ‘persistent’ inflation
Minutes from US central bank’s June meeting highlight schism over effect of Donald Trump’s levies
Don’t believe the myth: Britain’s services have been hit hard by Brexit
Export growth has been strong but not lived up to its potential
The Brics lose their clout
The bloc of heavyweight emerging markets has grown bigger but less coherent