Economic News

My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction interval. This is an aggregate number; however, we can infer certain trends from the disaggregate (by firm size) numbers from ADP. The financial accelerator approach (e.g., BBG, 1996)implies that smaller firms (with less collateral) will evidence a slowdown sooner than larger firms. Using the 500 employee cutoff, can we see the differential trends in the data? Figure 1: Change in employment from May 2025 in firms with less than 500 employees (blue), in firms with 500 and more employees (tan), both in 000’s, s.a. Source: ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.    Figure 2: Employment in firms with less than 500 employees (blue), in firms with 500 and more employees (tan), in logs 2025M05=0. Source: ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.  Private employment in firms with 1-499 employees constitutes about 80% of employment. Seen either way, employment growth has essentially disappeared for “small” firms. Addendum: Note that in the runup to the 2007-09 recession, small firm employment declines led large firm by nearly a year. Figure 3: Change in employment from May 2025 in firms with less than 500 employees (blue), in firms with 500 and more employees (tan), both in 000’s, s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: ADP (discontinued series) via FRED, and author’s calculations. 

ASIA: The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: • NIKKEI 225 increased 832.77 points or 1.85% to 45,769.50 • Shanghai closed • Hang Seng decreased 146.20 points or -0.54% to 27,140.92 • ASX 200 increased 41.50 points or 0.46% to 8,987.40 • SENSEX increased 223.86 points or 0.28% to 81,207.17 • Nifty50 increased 57.95 points or 0.23% to 24,894.25 The major Asian currency markets had a green day today: • AUDUSD increased 0.0006 or 0.09% to 0.66018 • NZDUSD increased 0.00139 or 0.24% to 0.58315 • USDJPY increased 0.235 or 0.16% to 147.511 • USDCNY increased 0.00201 or 0.03% to 7.13570 The above data was collected around 14:34 EST. Precious Metals: • Gold increased 33.14 USD/t oz. or 0.86% to 3,889.26 • Silver increased 1.071 USD/t. oz. or 2.28% to 48.062 The above data was collected around 14:37 EST. EUROPE/EMEA: The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today: • CAC 40 increased 24.91 points or 0.31% to 8,081.54 • FTSE 100 increased 63.52 points or 0.67% to 9,491.25 • DAX 30 decreased 43.76 points or -0.18% to 24,378.80 The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today: • EURUSD increased 0.00217 or 0.19% to 1.17373 • GBPUSD increased 0.00352 or 0.26% to 1.34753 • USDCHF decreased 0.00244 or -0.31% to 0.79565 The above data was collected around 14:41 EST. US/AMERICAS: US Market Closings: Dow advanced by 238.56 points (0.51%) to 46,758.28 S&P 500 advanced by 0.44 points (0.01%) to 6,715.79 NASDAQ declined by 63.55 points (0.28%) to 22,780.51 Russell 2000 advanced by 17.69 points (0.72%) to 2,476.18 Canada Market Closings: TSX Composite advanced by 311.09 points (1.03%) to 30,471.68 TSX 60 advanced by 21.94 points (1.23%) to 1,798.99 Brazil Market Closing: Bovespa advanced by 251.01 points (0.17%) to 144,200.65 ENERGY: The oil markets had a mixed day today: • Crude Oil increased 0.298 USD/BBL or 0.49% to 60.778 • Brent increased 0.368 USD/BBL or 0.57% to 64.478 • Natural gas decreased 0.1213 USD/MMBtu or -3.52% to 3.3207 • Gasoline increased 0.0056 USD/GAL or 0.30% to 1.8567 • Heating oil decreased 0.0055 USD/GAL or -0.25% to 2.2380 The above data was collected around 14:13 EST. • Top commodity gainers: Copper (2.68%), Platinum (2.62%), Coffee (2.38%) and Wool (7.71%) • Top commodity losers: Natural Gas (-3.52%), Canola (-1.31%), Cocoa (-4.86%) and Potatoes (-1.30%) The above data was collected around 14:28 EST. BONDS: Japan 1.6650% (-0.13bp), US 2’s 3.58% (+0.033%), US 10’s 4.118% (+3.2bps); US 30’s 4.71 (+0.021%), Bunds 2.703% (+0.52bp), France 3.5100% (-1.22bp), Italy 3.5440% (-0.54bp), Turkey 31.05% (+225bp), Greece 3.392% (-1.8bp), Portugal 3.092% (-1.3bp); Spain 3.236% (-0.6bp) and UK Gilts 4.6950% (-1.88bp) The above data was collected around 14:54 EST.

Meet 73 Top Economists Worth Following From Across the FocusEconomics Network If you are reading this article, it’s probably because you’re interested in economics, or in what’s going on in the world economy. You might be a business owner or employee, investor, student, or indeed perhaps an economist yourself. And what better time to read from economists across the FocusEconomics analyst panel than now?  With the U.S. President seeking to roll back globalization, the world economy has become a moving target, ever more elusive and ever trickier to predict. But one of the enduring pillars of globalization—the internet—means we can still learn and teach about the world economy in a way that is far easier than our ancestors could ever have conceived. This article shares with you 73 economists whose commentary on the world economy is insightful, sharp, and often entertaining. They work for a variety of banks, consultancies and other firms across the FocusEconomics panel, including Capital Economics, Fitch Ratings and many more. Their analysis covers a wide range of the 198 countries and 40 commodities that FocusEconomics provides Consensus Forecasts for. 1,243 economists provide projections as part of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. The point of boiling this number down to a list of just 73 is to provide you as the reader a bite-sized chunk of the huge offering of top-quality economic analysis that is available worldwide—in the same way that FocusEconomics seeks to aggregate various economic projections into one simple average: The Consensus Forecast. Skip ahead to the region or topic that interests you most: Asia Australia and New Zealand Eastern Europe Euro area The Caribbean plus Central and Latin America G7 / Major economies Nordic economies Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Global Commodities If you have any questions or feedback on this article, please contact our Panelist Manager Alina Petryk at apetryk@focus-economics.com. Asia Taimur Baig Taimur Baig is Managing Director at DBS Bank, which received nine FocusEconomics Forecaster Awards this year, with a particularly strong showing for countries on home turf—the ASEAN region. Baig himself bagged a second-place award for his U.S. inflation forecasts. He hosts the Kopi Time podcast, and regularly shares media appearances and ad-hoc analyses, arguing in one that, after a strong showing in Q2, Asian economies are likely to have slowed in Q3. Follow Carlos Casanova Carlos Casanova is Managing Director and Senior Economist at UBP, and won awards this year from FocusEconomics for various Asian countries, including for being the best forecaster of Hong Kong’s GDP. Casanova shares UBP’s research generously, including a detailed six-page report available to read on LinkedIn on the last week’s developments in the Asian economy. Follow Hak Bin Chua Hak Bin Chua is Maybank’s Regional Co-Head of macro research, and this year scooped FocusEconomics Forecaster Awards with colleague Brian Lee Shun Rong for Singapore’s current and fiscal balances. Chua is regularly quoted in print media, including the Straits Times, and shares the relevant excerpts on LinkedIn—an insightful and speedy way of learning more about Singapore’s economy. Follow Alex Holmes Alex Holmes is the EIU’s Regional Director for the Asia-Pacific, having joined the company last year from Oxford Economics. If you want to hear about the latest cutting research on Asia in a prose that’s peppy and entertaining, Holmes is definitely worth following. In one of his recent posts, Holmes reminded his readers of the EIU’s view last year that global chip demand would bolster Asian exports ahead—a crucial question to examine in an age of rising U.S. tariffs. Follow Kalyani Honrao The EIU’s Kalyani Honrao—a relative newcomer compared to some of the other names on this list—is definitely worth following if you are interested in south Asian economies. She won FocusEconomics Awards both this year and last for her projections about Bangladesh’s economy, a country she posts about regularly on LinkedIn. In a recent post, she highlights a recent appearance in the Globe and Mail in which she examines the parallels between Nepal and Bangladesh’s recent political shifts. Follow Kelvin Lam Kelvin Lam is Senior China and North Asia Economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. Along with colleague Duncan Wrigley, Lam was recognized this year by FocusEconomics as the most accurate forecaster of China’s inflation rate. On LinkedIn Lam regularly shares his media appearances, including recently one on the BBC World Service discussing talks between the Chinese and U.S. leaders. Follow Yun Liu Yun Liu covers ASEAN for HSBC, and was recognized as one of the top-three best forecasters of Malaysia’s economy in this year’s FocusEconomics Forecaster Awards. As well as sharing her thoughts on the likely impact of U.S. tariffs on ASEAN economies, Liu is active at conferences and in the media, recently appearing on CNBC to talk about the impact of Fed decisions on ASEAN central banks—a vital topic for those to follow that are interested in the region. Follow Euben Paracuelles Euben Paracuelles is the Chief ASEAN Economist at Nomura, covering key economies in the region including the Philippines, a country for which he was recognized as one of the top-three best overall forecasters in the latest FocusEconomics Awards. Paracuelles writes regularly on LinkedIn about Nomura’s podcasts and research, building on nearly 30 years of experience. Follow Nick Marro Nick Marro is Principal Economist at EIU, covering Asia. This year, he was recognized by FocusEconomics as the second-most accurate forecaster for Taiwan, an economy whose exports have consistently surged by over 30% in the past months on booming AI demand. Marro recently shared his recent interview on CNBC, examining what Taiwan will need to do to keep up its strong export momentum in the face of rising U.S. tariffs. Follow Allan Von Mehren Allan Von Mehren, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank and a member of our panel, is a keen watcher of China’s economy. In a recent post von Mehren offers snappy analyses regarding China’s latest monthly data dump, suggesting that a weakening of retail sales growth points to continued soft consumer spending and downbeat figures for home prices and sales augur a still-sluggish housing market.

Many people are inquiring about the opportunity to invest in the upcoming Hollywood film about Cycles. I was told yes, but I am waiting for details. I think they will have a vehicle that people can invest in. I am not sure; I have not personally been involved in Hollywood movie funding. They did say I can share the first two pages of the script. I do know they are talking to A-class actors. However, beyond that, the script is currently in final editing. I will be meeting with the studio’s head this coming week. The Hollywood Film TEASER_10-3-25 I agreed to allow this film to be done on my career because the main objective is to show the world that cyclical analysis actually exists. I assume that everything I have done, all the people I have met, and the confrontations with those in government and on Wall Street who wanted to silence the forecasts have been for a reason. I assume that this is my destiny, and it is to be passed on; hopefully, we can create a better world in the future. The Forecaster – Sequel Then, Marcus Vetter is working on a sequel to the Forecaster, featuring all the WECs he has filmed from 2011 onwards, showcasing the forecasts and how they were remarkably accurate. People who were once skeptical about our war models on war are now saying holy shit. They see it before their eyes in Europe. Even I, when I looked at that 2011 forecast that war would begin in 2014, it was hard for me to imagine World War III. I reasoned that mankind learned from two World Wars in Europe, and now I see that we have the worst crop of world leaders, perhaps in human history – it’s not just one! This idea that a one-world government will prevent war is lurking behind everything. War is a Racket A third film inspired by our War Model is currently being shot, and it is expected to be released by January. Many people have agreed to participate.

In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .   Location Sewell Social Sciences 5102 [new] Douglas Holtz-Eakin was formerly Director of the Congressional Budget Office (2003-05), Chief Economist of the CEA (2001-02), and currently President of the American Action Forum. A recent evaluation by Dr. Holtz-Eakin of the US macroeconomy, here.  

Meet 73 Top Economists Worth Following From Across the FocusEconomics Network If you are reading this article, it’s probably because you’re interested in economics, or in what’s going on in the world economy. You might be a business owner or employee, investor, student, or indeed perhaps an economist yourself. And what better time to read from economists across the FocusEconomics analyst panel than now?  With the U.S. President seeking to roll back globalization, the world economy has become a moving target, ever more elusive and ever trickier to predict. But one of the enduring pillars of globalization—the internet—means we can still learn and teach about the world economy in a way that is far easier than our ancestors could ever have conceived. This article shares with you 73 economists whose commentary on the world economy is insightful, sharp, and often entertaining. They work for a variety of banks, consultancies and other firms across the FocusEconomics panel, including Capital Economics, Fitch Ratings and many more. Their analysis covers a wide range of the 198 countries and 40 commodities that FocusEconomics provides Consensus Forecasts for. 1,243 economists provide projections as part of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. The point of boiling this number down to a list of just 73 is to provide you as the reader a bite-sized chunk of the huge offering of top-quality economic analysis that is available worldwide—in the same way that FocusEconomics seeks to aggregate various economic projections into one simple average: The Consensus Forecast. Skip ahead to the region or topic that interests you most: Asia Australia and New Zealand Eastern Europe Euro area The Caribbean plus Central and Latin America G7 / Major economies Nordic economies Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Global Commodities If you have any questions or feedback on this article, please contact our Panelist Manager Alina Petryk at apetryk@focus-economics.com. Asia Taimur Baig Taimur Baig is Managing Director at DBS Bank, which received nine FocusEconomics Forecaster Awards this year, with a particularly strong showing for countries on home turf—the ASEAN region. Baig himself bagged a second-place award for his U.S. inflation forecasts. He hosts the Kopi Time podcast, and regularly shares media appearances and ad-hoc analyses, arguing in one that, after a strong showing in Q2, Asian economies are likely to have slowed in Q3. Follow Carlos Casanova Carlos Casanova is Managing Director and Senior Economist at UBP, and won awards this year from FocusEconomics for various Asian countries, including for being the best forecaster of Hong Kong’s GDP. Casanova shares UBP’s research generously, including a detailed six-page report available to read on LinkedIn on the last week’s developments in the Asian economy. Follow Hak Bin Chua Hak Bin Chua is Maybank’s Regional Co-Head of macro research, and this year scooped FocusEconomics Forecaster Awards with colleague Brian Lee Shun Rong for Singapore’s current and fiscal balances. Chua is regularly quoted in print media, including the Straits Times, and shares the relevant excerpts on LinkedIn—an insightful and speedy way of learning more about Singapore’s economy. Follow Alex Holmes Alex Holmes is the EIU’s Regional Director for the Asia-Pacific, having joined the company last year from Oxford Economics. If you want to hear about the latest cutting research on Asia in a prose that’s peppy and entertaining, Holmes is definitely worth following. In one of his recent posts, Holmes reminded his readers of the EIU’s view last year that global chip demand would bolster Asian exports ahead—a crucial question to examine in an age of rising U.S. tariffs. Follow Kalyani Honrao The EIU’s Kalyani Honrao—a relative newcomer compared to some of the other names on this list—is definitely worth following if you are interested in south Asian economies. She won FocusEconomics Awards both this year and last for her projections about Bangladesh’s economy, a country she posts about regularly on LinkedIn. In a recent post, she highlights a recent appearance in the Globe and Mail in which she examines the parallels between Nepal and Bangladesh’s recent political shifts. Follow Kelvin Lam Kelvin Lam is Senior China and North Asia Economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. Along with colleague Duncan Wrigley, Lam was recognized this year by FocusEconomics as the most accurate forecaster of China’s inflation rate. On LinkedIn Lam regularly shares his media appearances, including recently one on the BBC World Service discussing talks between the Chinese and U.S. leaders. Follow Yun Liu Yun Liu covers ASEAN for HSBC, and was recognized as one of the top-three best forecasters of Malaysia’s economy in this year’s FocusEconomics Forecaster Awards. As well as sharing her thoughts on the likely impact of U.S. tariffs on ASEAN economies, Liu is active at conferences and in the media, recently appearing on CNBC to talk about the impact of Fed decisions on ASEAN central banks—a vital topic for those to follow that are interested in the region. Follow Euben Paracuelles Euben Paracuelles is the Chief ASEAN Economist at Nomura, covering key economies in the region including the Philippines, a country for which he was recognized as one of the top-three best overall forecasters in the latest FocusEconomics Awards. Paracuelles writes regularly on LinkedIn about Nomura’s podcasts and research, building on nearly 30 years of experience. Follow Nick Marro Nick Marro is Principal Economist at EIU, covering Asia. This year, he was recognized by FocusEconomics as the second-most accurate forecaster for Taiwan, an economy whose exports have consistently surged by over 30% in the past months on booming AI demand. Marro recently shared his recent interview on CNBC, examining what Taiwan will need to do to keep up its strong export momentum in the face of rising U.S. tariffs. Follow Allan Von Mehren Allan Von Mehren, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank and a member of our panel, is a keen watcher of China’s economy. In a recent post von Mehren offers snappy analyses regarding China’s latest monthly data dump, suggesting that a weakening of retail sales growth points to continued soft consumer spending and downbeat figures for home prices and sales augur a still-sluggish housing market.

There has never been a positive outcome when the government sets out to disarm the people. Authoritarian states are the inevitable result. Certain semi-automatic weapons were prohibited in March 2025, with a one-year amnesty period for lawful gun owners to surrender their rifles through a buyback program. The government claims the buyback program is completely voluntary “with the expectation they will comply,” according to Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree. Anandasangaree does not believe the Canadian government is equipped to disarm citizens, as revealed in a leaked audio clip. “I just don’t think municipal police services have the resources to do this,” the minister says. The minister claims a gun lobbyist leaked the audio in which he was speaking in jest. On the audio, the minister admits that gun owners are clearly losing money with a C$400 flat rate compensation for each gun surrendered. The man asks if he would be considered a criminal for refusing to deactivate or surrender his guns. “If the police enforce it, yes,” the minister states. Anandasangaree admits the program is flawed, but speaking with Mark Carney is a moot point. “We’ve had all these conversations. Like I’ve had for the last four months, it’s been like constant, constant discussions on this to see what’s next, right? And the conclusion is let’s finish this because we committed to it in the campaign,” he reveals, mentioning earlier in the call he is simply following orders. “No, you’re going to turn me into a criminal Gary, because you know I’m not gonna turn mine in. I’m telling you right now. I refused it,” the associate rebuked, adding, “Well, no, but the police will come to my house at some point, because what’s registered. They know who I am, they know where I live, they know where they are, they’re locked up in my safe, I’m gonna refuse to hand ’em in. They’re gonna come in, rip open my safe, right? Take those firearms and put me in handcuffs.” Gary stated he would bail him out if that happened. Disgraced former PM Justin Trudeau attempted to implement a buyback program on May 1, 2020, but did not go as far as revoking gun licenses and confiscating guns. The current program is capped at a budget of C$742 million. Money is not the concern here. Canadians have had the right to legally own arms for 243 years, but suddenly the government decided they no longer deserve the right. Gun confiscation veiled as gun control. A voluntary program will soon become mandatory. Failure to comply will result in criminal charges. Law-abiding citizens are rarely the culprits behind gun crime. The criminals on the streets and in office will still have guns. Anandasangaree admitted that the government has yet to decide what they will do if the majority fail to comply, and after COVID, there’s valid reason to believe that most will cave.

Maximillian Alvarez A grassroots campaign successful pressured the tech monopoly to take an unprecedented step toward suspending its complicity in the Gaza genocide The post How Microsoft Workers Helped Halt a Major Contract With the Israeli Military appeared first on The Nation.

In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .   Location Sewell Social Sciences 5102 [new] Douglas Holtz-Eakin was formerly Director of the Congressional Budget Office (2003-05), Chief Economist of the CEA (2001-02), and currently President of the American Action Forum. A recent evaluation by Dr. Holtz-Eakin of the US macroeconomy, here.  

There has never been a positive outcome when the government sets out to disarm the people. Authoritarian states are the inevitable result. Certain semi-automatic weapons were prohibited in March 2025, with a one-year amnesty period for lawful gun owners to surrender their rifles through a buyback program. The government claims the buyback program is completely voluntary “with the expectation they will comply,” according to Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree. Anandasangaree does not believe the Canadian government is equipped to disarm citizens, as revealed in a leaked audio clip. “I just don’t think municipal police services have the resources to do this,” the minister says. The minister claims a gun lobbyist leaked the audio in which he was speaking in jest. On the audio, the minister admits that gun owners are clearly losing money with a C$400 flat rate compensation for each gun surrendered. The man asks if he would be considered a criminal for refusing to deactivate or surrender his guns. “If the police enforce it, yes,” the minister states. Anandasangaree admits the program is flawed, but speaking with Mark Carney is a moot point. “We’ve had all these conversations. Like I’ve had for the last four months, it’s been like constant, constant discussions on this to see what’s next, right? And the conclusion is let’s finish this because we committed to it in the campaign,” he reveals, mentioning earlier in the call he is simply following orders. “No, you’re going to turn me into a criminal Gary, because you know I’m not gonna turn mine in. I’m telling you right now. I refused it,” the associate rebuked, adding, “Well, no, but the police will come to my house at some point, because what’s registered. They know who I am, they know where I live, they know where they are, they’re locked up in my safe, I’m gonna refuse to hand ’em in. They’re gonna come in, rip open my safe, right? Take those firearms and put me in handcuffs.” Gary stated he would bail him out if that happened. Disgraced former PM Justin Trudeau attempted to implement a buyback program on May 1, 2020, but did not go as far as revoking gun licenses and confiscating guns. The current program is capped at a budget of C$742 million. Money is not the concern here. Canadians have had the right to legally own arms for 243 years, but suddenly the government decided they no longer deserve the right. Gun confiscation veiled as gun control. A voluntary program will soon become mandatory. Failure to comply will result in criminal charges. Law-abiding citizens are rarely the culprits behind gun crime. The criminals on the streets and in office will still have guns. Anandasangaree admitted that the government has yet to decide what they will do if the majority fail to comply, and after COVID, there’s valid reason to believe that most will cave.