Economic News

US president also rejects reducing 25% sectoral duties on cars from the bloc, say diplomats

Up for all three, although production essentially flat since February, and real retail sales down since March. Indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC in Figure 1: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment using smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. 2025Q1 GDP is third release. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/2/2025 release), and author’s calculations.  Alternative business cycle indicators: Figure 2: Preliminary Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, with smoothed population controls (orange), manufacturing production (red), real retail sales (black), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2], Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2025Q1 third release, and author’s calculations.

Commerce department’s move follows Beijing restricting transfers of battery technology

Also in this newsletter: Slovakia lifts its block on the EU’s latest sanctions against Russia

Council on Foreign Relations president and former US Trade Representative on tariffs and Donald Trump’s deals

The cognitive dissonance of America’s pro-crypto policymaking

US president writes letter of support to former Brazilian leader Bolsonaro, who is on trial on coup charges

Also in today’s newsletter, China’s Belt and Road Initiative expands, and Trump set to open US retirement market to crypto investments

While the political difficulties are real, the economic challenges are far from insurmountable 

The president has a number of options to take action against Jay Powell, but they all come with risks