Economic News

Leer en Español Global economy to lose steam this year: The FocusEconomics World GDP Consensus Forecast—based on 3,500 individual projections for GDP growth across 198 countries—shows that the global economy is on track for its slowest growth since the Covid-19 slump of 2020 this year, dragged down by softer expansions in major players like Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Russia and the U.S. But the picture isn’t bleak everywhere—Africa and the Middle East are set to accelerate, powered by rising OPEC+ oil output quotas that are giving regional GDP a welcome boost.   Forecasts display U-shaped trend: As the graph below shows, our World GDP Consensus Forecast was slashed in the wake of Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, but has since recovered somewhat. Economic activity in many parts of the world has proved more resilient than expected, higher tariffs in the U.S. are taking a while to filter through to prices, and the global AI boom is girding tech exports and investment.  G20 countries see divergent trend: The below graph shows the evolution of our 2025 GDP growth forecasts for select G20 countries over the last six months. Argentina has seen the largest upgrade, as the government’s aggressive reform agenda has borne fruit. China’s forecasts have also been upgraded—superficially surprising, given the country has been subjected to hefty new U.S. tariffs. Chinese economic activity has been boosted by record government bond issuance, strong global electronics demand, rapid electric-vehicle-sector growth, export frontloading and rerouting to avoid U.S. tariffs, and an expanded trade-in scheme that boosted household spending. At the other end of the spectrum are the economies of South Korea and Mexico, both of which are likely to suffer fallout from a more protectionist U.S.   Insight from our panelists:  On the outlook for the global economy, EIU analysts said: US trade protectionism is being met mostly with restraint in terms of retaliation, but deep policy uncertainty is moving the global economy into a worse equilibrium. The risk of policy missteps will be high in this environment of rapid change. Although we forecast that global short-term interest rates will continue to fall, the unpredictable application of US tariffs will make it difficult for central banks to decipher inflation trends. Under the second Trump administration, the US is working to rebalance its economic and security relations. The manner in which the agenda is being pursued, however, will strain traditional alliances and drive geopolitical and economic realignment. Conflict risk and geopolitical brinkmanship will be key features of the global landscape, contributing to high risk premia and sustaining the risk of commodity price shocks.  On U.S. trade policy, ING’s Carsten Brzeski said: “Trump is demanding that trading partners show him the money in the form of investment pledges or face astronomically high tariffs. […] It’s unclear whether investment aspects of trade talks will move beyond headline figures and vague commitments. Unlike tariffs, which are straightforward to enforce, investment pledges and purchase commitments are harder to monitor, especially since entities like the EU lack the authority to guarantee them, leaving delivery to corporations. Japan and South Korea’s promises are mainly in the form of loans. This raises questions about how the U.S. might respond if countries fall short. And even with a deal – and I’m looking at you, Switzerland – the tariff issue persists. For Trump, tariffs are a versatile tool, used well beyond trade balance concerns. We can only guess at the long-term implications of such economic power play. Disrupted supply chains, strained diplomatic ties, economic selfishness, and less efficient global trade are just a few things to come to mind.”  Our latest analysis:  Israel’s economy clocked a surprise contraction in Q2.  Japan’s exports worsened again in July.  The post Get the latest global GDP growth forecasts via our daily tracker appeared first on FocusEconomics.

Leer en Español Global economy to lose steam this year: The FocusEconomics World GDP Consensus Forecast—based on 3,500 individual projections for GDP growth across 198 countries—shows that the global economy is on track for its slowest growth since the Covid-19 slump of 2020 this year, dragged down by softer expansions in major players like Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Russia and the U.S. But the picture isn’t bleak everywhere—Africa and the Middle East are set to accelerate, powered by rising OPEC+ oil output quotas that are giving regional GDP a welcome boost.   Forecasts display U-shaped trend: As the graph below shows, our World GDP Consensus Forecast was slashed in the wake of Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, but has since recovered somewhat. Economic activity in many parts of the world has proved more resilient than expected, higher tariffs in the U.S. are taking a while to filter through to prices, and the global AI boom is girding tech exports and investment.  G20 countries see divergent trend: The below graph shows the evolution of our 2025 GDP growth forecasts for select G20 countries over the last six months. Argentina has seen the largest upgrade, as the government’s aggressive reform agenda has borne fruit. China’s forecasts have also been upgraded—superficially surprising, given the country has been subjected to hefty new U.S. tariffs. Chinese economic activity has been boosted by record government bond issuance, strong global electronics demand, rapid electric-vehicle-sector growth, export frontloading and rerouting to avoid U.S. tariffs, and an expanded trade-in scheme that boosted household spending. At the other end of the spectrum are the economies of South Korea and Mexico, both of which are likely to suffer fallout from a more protectionist U.S.   Insight from our panelists:  On the outlook for the global economy, EIU analysts said: US trade protectionism is being met mostly with restraint in terms of retaliation, but deep policy uncertainty is moving the global economy into a worse equilibrium. The risk of policy missteps will be high in this environment of rapid change. Although we forecast that global short-term interest rates will continue to fall, the unpredictable application of US tariffs will make it difficult for central banks to decipher inflation trends. Under the second Trump administration, the US is working to rebalance its economic and security relations. The manner in which the agenda is being pursued, however, will strain traditional alliances and drive geopolitical and economic realignment. Conflict risk and geopolitical brinkmanship will be key features of the global landscape, contributing to high risk premia and sustaining the risk of commodity price shocks.  On U.S. trade policy, ING’s Carsten Brzeski said: “Trump is demanding that trading partners show him the money in the form of investment pledges or face astronomically high tariffs. […] It’s unclear whether investment aspects of trade talks will move beyond headline figures and vague commitments. Unlike tariffs, which are straightforward to enforce, investment pledges and purchase commitments are harder to monitor, especially since entities like the EU lack the authority to guarantee them, leaving delivery to corporations. Japan and South Korea’s promises are mainly in the form of loans. This raises questions about how the U.S. might respond if countries fall short. And even with a deal – and I’m looking at you, Switzerland – the tariff issue persists. For Trump, tariffs are a versatile tool, used well beyond trade balance concerns. We can only guess at the long-term implications of such economic power play. Disrupted supply chains, strained diplomatic ties, economic selfishness, and less efficient global trade are just a few things to come to mind.”  Our latest analysis:  Israel’s economy clocked a surprise contraction in Q2.  Japan’s exports worsened again in July.  The post Get the latest global GDP growth forecasts via our daily tracker appeared first on FocusEconomics.

ASIA: The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: • NIKKEI 225 increased 625.06 points or 1.45% to 43,643.81 • Shanghai increased 14.326 points or 0.38% to 3,826.841 • Hang Seng increased 215.93 points or 0.85% to 25,633.91 • ASX 200 decreased 21.60 points or -0.24% to 8,849.60 • SENSEX increased 76.54 points or 0.09% to 80,787.30 • Nifty50 increased 32.15 points or 0.13% to 24,773.15 The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today: • AUDUSD increased 0.00335 or 0.51% to 0.65833 • NZDUSD increased 0.00481 or 0.82% to 0.59313 • USDJPY increased 0.371 or 0.25% to 147.711 • USDCNY decreased 0.00109 or -0.02% to 7.12388 The above data was collected around 13:21 EST. Precious Metals: • Gold increased 43.04 USD/t oz. or 1.20% to 3,635.54 • Silver increased 0.331 USD/t. oz. or 0.81% to 41.291 The above data was collected around 13:27 EST. EUROPE/EMEA: The major Europe stock markets had a green day today: • CAC 40 increased 60.06 points or 0.78% to 7,734.84 • FTSE 100 increased 13.23 points or 0.14% to 9,221.44 • DAX 30 increased 210.15 points or 0.89% to 23,807.13 The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today: • EURUSD increased 0.00338 or 0.29% to 1.17446 • GBPUSD increased 0.00343 or 0.25% to 1.35365 • USDCHF decreased 0.0038 or -0.48% to 0.79435 The above data was collected around 13:39 EST. US/AMERICAS: US Market Closings: Dow advanced by 114.09 points (+0.25%) to 45,514.95 S&P 500 advanced by 13.65 points (+0.21%) to 6,495.15 NASDAQ advanced by 98.31 points (+0.45%) to 21,798.70 Russell 2000 advanced by 3.85 points (+0.16%) to 2,394.89 Canada Market Closings: TSX Composite declined by 22.90 points (-0.08%) to 29,027.73 TSX 60 declined by 1.97 points (-0.11%) to 1,718.41 Brazil Market Closing: Bovespa declined by 803.08 points (-0.56%) to 141,837.06 ENERGY: The oil markets had a mixed day today: • Crude Oil increased 0.508 USD/BBL or 0.82% to 62.378 • Brent increased 0.591 USD/BBL or 0.90% to 66.091 • Natural gas increased 0.0557 USD/MMBtu or 1.83% to 3.1037 • Gasoline decreased 0.0046 USD/GAL or -0.23% to 1.9620 • Heating oil increased 0.0288 USD/GAL or 1.26% to 2.3158 The above data was collected around 12:43 EST. • Top commodity gainers: Rubber (2.11%), Coffee (2.50%), Potatoes (2.67%) and Palladium (2.26%) • Top commodity losers: Lumber (-1.57%), Rice (-1.90%), Cocoa (-5.64%) and Lean Hogs (-0.81%) The above data was collected around 13:59 EST. BONDS: Japan 1.5680% (-0.79bp), US 2’s 3.51% (-0.010%), US 10’s 4.0600% (-1.7bps); US 30’s 4.71 (-0.055%), Bunds 2.6483% (-0.99bp), France 3.4090% (-3.98bp), Italy 3.496% (-3.5bp), Turkey 33.01% (+262bp), Greece 3.341% (-2.2bp), Portugal 3.067% (-2.9bp); Spain 3.233% (-1.9bp) and UK Gilts 4.6090% (-4.49bp) The above data was collected around 14:06 EST.

Leer en Español Global economy to lose steam this year: The FocusEconomics World GDP Consensus Forecast—based on 3,500 individual projections for GDP growth across 198 countries—shows that the global economy is on track for its slowest growth since the Covid-19 slump of 2020 this year, dragged down by softer expansions in major players like Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Russia and the U.S. But the picture isn’t bleak everywhere—Africa and the Middle East are set to accelerate, powered by rising OPEC+ oil output quotas that are giving regional GDP a welcome boost.   Forecasts display U-shaped trend: As the graph below shows, our World GDP Consensus Forecast was slashed in the wake of Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, but has since recovered somewhat. Economic activity in many parts of the world has proved more resilient than expected, higher tariffs in the U.S. are taking a while to filter through to prices, and the global AI boom is girding tech exports and investment.  G20 countries see divergent trend: The below graph shows the evolution of our 2025 GDP growth forecasts for select G20 countries over the last six months. Argentina has seen the largest upgrade, as the government’s aggressive reform agenda has borne fruit. China’s forecasts have also been upgraded—superficially surprising, given the country has been subjected to hefty new U.S. tariffs. Chinese economic activity has been boosted by record government bond issuance, strong global electronics demand, rapid electric-vehicle-sector growth, export frontloading and rerouting to avoid U.S. tariffs, and an expanded trade-in scheme that boosted household spending. At the other end of the spectrum are the economies of South Korea and Mexico, both of which are likely to suffer fallout from a more protectionist U.S.   Insight from our panelists:  On the outlook for the global economy, EIU analysts said: US trade protectionism is being met mostly with restraint in terms of retaliation, but deep policy uncertainty is moving the global economy into a worse equilibrium. The risk of policy missteps will be high in this environment of rapid change. Although we forecast that global short-term interest rates will continue to fall, the unpredictable application of US tariffs will make it difficult for central banks to decipher inflation trends. Under the second Trump administration, the US is working to rebalance its economic and security relations. The manner in which the agenda is being pursued, however, will strain traditional alliances and drive geopolitical and economic realignment. Conflict risk and geopolitical brinkmanship will be key features of the global landscape, contributing to high risk premia and sustaining the risk of commodity price shocks.  On U.S. trade policy, ING’s Carsten Brzeski said: “Trump is demanding that trading partners show him the money in the form of investment pledges or face astronomically high tariffs. […] It’s unclear whether investment aspects of trade talks will move beyond headline figures and vague commitments. Unlike tariffs, which are straightforward to enforce, investment pledges and purchase commitments are harder to monitor, especially since entities like the EU lack the authority to guarantee them, leaving delivery to corporations. Japan and South Korea’s promises are mainly in the form of loans. This raises questions about how the U.S. might respond if countries fall short. And even with a deal – and I’m looking at you, Switzerland – the tariff issue persists. For Trump, tariffs are a versatile tool, used well beyond trade balance concerns. We can only guess at the long-term implications of such economic power play. Disrupted supply chains, strained diplomatic ties, economic selfishness, and less efficient global trade are just a few things to come to mind.”  Our latest analysis:  Israel’s economy clocked a surprise contraction in Q2.  Japan’s exports worsened again in July.  The post Get the latest global GDP growth forecasts via our daily tracker appeared first on FocusEconomics.

Press Room A new monthly column from The Nation takes on the plutocrats wielding their wealth and power at the expense of the rest of us. The post Introducing “Oligarch Watch” appeared first on The Nation.

With NFP at +22K < +75K Bloomberg consensus (hinted at by Trump signaling “pay no heed to the numbers behind the curtain”), we have the following picture of key indicators of the NBER’s BCDC (including the 48K downward revision in previous two months): Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), Bloomberg consensus industrial production of 8/14, (red square), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2025Q2 second release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/2/2025 release), and author’s calculations.  Notice that the Mean Absolute Revision going from first to third release in 2022-24 period is about 40K, so the approximate 95% confidence interval is -62K to +102K. While smoothed civilian employment rose slightly (orange line), given the variability in this series, should be taken as essentially zero growth. Overall, civilian employment is below recent peak. All in all, these numbers are consistent with a cooling labor market, as discussed in yesterday’s post. Monthly GDP released on Tuesday by S&P Global, rose at a decelerated rate — 2.4% m/m AR in July vs. 11% in June.

Following the meeting, which was attended by Zelensky, the Petit Napoleon Macron, pushing to conquer Russia, said that 26 countries – including the UK and France – have pledged to deploy troops in Ukraine as a “reassurance force” in the event of a ceasefire. They know what they are doing. This is the prelude to a false flag to realize their dream to finally conquer Russia, grab the $75 trillion in assets, and refund the European Union, which cannot last much beyond 2028. The two countries that may need an IMF bailout are France and Britain. It’s no surprise that they are cheering war because the alternative is cutting all the aid for the migrants, pensions, and social programs that they know will cause massive civil unrest. Vladimir Putin is not stupid. If I were him, the economic decay of the EU would be a clear sign of desperation for war. Putin made it clear that in the absence of a real peace deal, which is just honoring the Minsk Agreement that they all swore to and signed, letting the Donbas separate, Russia will have to achieve its goals “by military means.” Back in July, the NEOCON Kaja Kallas, who has openly called for the breakup of Russia, displayed her incompetence being conflicted by personal hatred of Russians for the days of Stalin. She had a catastrophic meeting with China’s High Commissioner for Foreign Relations, lecturing him on EU values and democracy, despite neither she nor Ursula having been elected. She then demanded that China submit to the rules-based order of the EU and unimaginably demanded that China condemn Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, cease providing support, and use its influence to tell Putin to surrender and stop Russia’s advance westward. Wang Yi respectfully stated that China was not helping Russia in the conflict with Ukraine. He added that he had no intention of interfering in that conflict. Moreover, he bluntly informed Kallas that China had no intention of standing idly by and watching Russia lose. He stated that China believes that if Russia were defeated, the EU and NATO would turn on China next. It was reported that observers never saw Wang Yi so angry at the arrogance of Kallas. The United States, the EU, and Britain are all firmly in the hands of the NEOCONS. Trump’s call to these European leaders telling them to stop buying Russian Oil and to put pressure on China is PRECISELY a NEOCON tactic that has NEVER worked, and will never work. We Do Not Stand a Prayer in Hell of Stopping This Neocon War They Have Spent Their Entire Lives Waiting For This Day to Destroy Russia This Ukraine Civil War that the West started, for this very purpose of instigating World War III, will ONLY be resolved on the battlefield. The EU Cannot be Trusted – Plain & Simple

Leer en Español Global economy to lose steam this year: The FocusEconomics World GDP Consensus Forecast—based on 3,500 individual projections for GDP growth across 198 countries—shows that the global economy is on track for its slowest growth since the Covid-19 slump of 2020 this year, dragged down by softer expansions in major players like Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Russia and the U.S. But the picture isn’t bleak everywhere—Africa and the Middle East are set to accelerate, powered by rising OPEC+ oil output quotas that are giving regional GDP a welcome boost.   Forecasts display U-shaped trend: As the graph below shows, our World GDP Consensus Forecast was slashed in the wake of Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, but has since recovered somewhat. Economic activity in many parts of the world has proved more resilient than expected, higher tariffs in the U.S. are taking a while to filter through to prices, and the global AI boom is girding tech exports and investment.  G20 countries see divergent trend: The below graph shows the evolution of our 2025 GDP growth forecasts for select G20 countries over the last six months. Argentina has seen the largest upgrade, as the government’s aggressive reform agenda has borne fruit. China’s forecasts have also been upgraded—superficially surprising, given the country has been subjected to hefty new U.S. tariffs. Chinese economic activity has been boosted by record government bond issuance, strong global electronics demand, rapid electric-vehicle-sector growth, export frontloading and rerouting to avoid U.S. tariffs, and an expanded trade-in scheme that boosted household spending. At the other end of the spectrum are the economies of South Korea and Mexico, both of which are likely to suffer fallout from a more protectionist U.S.   Insight from our panelists:  On the outlook for the global economy, EIU analysts said: US trade protectionism is being met mostly with restraint in terms of retaliation, but deep policy uncertainty is moving the global economy into a worse equilibrium. The risk of policy missteps will be high in this environment of rapid change. Although we forecast that global short-term interest rates will continue to fall, the unpredictable application of US tariffs will make it difficult for central banks to decipher inflation trends. Under the second Trump administration, the US is working to rebalance its economic and security relations. The manner in which the agenda is being pursued, however, will strain traditional alliances and drive geopolitical and economic realignment. Conflict risk and geopolitical brinkmanship will be key features of the global landscape, contributing to high risk premia and sustaining the risk of commodity price shocks.  On U.S. trade policy, ING’s Carsten Brzeski said: “Trump is demanding that trading partners show him the money in the form of investment pledges or face astronomically high tariffs. […] It’s unclear whether investment aspects of trade talks will move beyond headline figures and vague commitments. Unlike tariffs, which are straightforward to enforce, investment pledges and purchase commitments are harder to monitor, especially since entities like the EU lack the authority to guarantee them, leaving delivery to corporations. Japan and South Korea’s promises are mainly in the form of loans. This raises questions about how the U.S. might respond if countries fall short. And even with a deal – and I’m looking at you, Switzerland – the tariff issue persists. For Trump, tariffs are a versatile tool, used well beyond trade balance concerns. We can only guess at the long-term implications of such economic power play. Disrupted supply chains, strained diplomatic ties, economic selfishness, and less efficient global trade are just a few things to come to mind.”  Our latest analysis:  Israel’s economy clocked a surprise contraction in Q2.  Japan’s exports worsened again in July.  The post Get the latest global GDP growth forecasts via our daily tracker appeared first on FocusEconomics.

Harrison Stetler Prime Minister François Bayrou is gambling his political survival on a confidence vote, in a probably doomed attempt to force France’s hung parliament to accept an austerity budget. The post The French Center Plays Brinkmanship With Fiscal Crisis appeared first on The Nation.