Economic News

So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor @ZohranKMamdani ???? pic.twitter.com/nvR5Zb46TI — Alex Soros (@AlexanderSoros) November 5, 2025 Alex Soros, heir to the Open Society Foundations, publicly congratulated Zohran Mamdani on securing the far left’s position in New York. “So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor Zohran Mamdani,” Soros wrote. Zohran Mamdani is NOT an anti-establishment candidate—he is an anti-Trump and anti-American puppet installed by the billionaire globalists. Neo-Marxists only want to eat the rich who do not support their causes. But first, they need to starve and confuse the masses so that they target the “rich” rather than the government. Soros paid good money to help Mamdani’s campaign, donating between $24 to $37 million on groups like DSA and Working Families Party that supported the Democratic candidate. President Donald Trump previously suggested that Alex and George Soros be charged with RICO due to their open support for violent protests across the nation, with the most recent one surrounding Palestine. “George Soros, and his Wonderful Radical Left son, should be charged with RICO because of their support of Violent Protests, and much more, all throughout the United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We’re not going to allow these lunatics to rip apart America any more, never giving it so much as a chance to ‘BREATHE,’ and be FREE.” What happens when neo-Marxism combines with Islam? New York will be the test subject. Mamdani famously supported the slogan, “Globalize the intifada,” which he hailed as “a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights.” He supports the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, and refuses to denounce Shira Law. “I think critiques of the state of Israel are critiques of a government, as opposed to critiques of a people and of a faith,” Mamdani said. “And my job is to represent every single New Yorker, and I will do so no matter their thoughts and opinions on Israel and Palestine, of which millions of New Yorkers have very strong views — and I’m one of them.” He is not against the Jews, like his friend Alex Soros; he is simply against all things Western. As George Soros said in 1995: “The transformation of a closed society into an open one is a systematic transformation. Practically everything has to change and there is no blueprint. What the foundations have done is to change the way the transformation is brought about. They mobilized the energies of the people in the countries concerned.” Mamdani is the puppet that will be used to lead the mobilization of globalization, starting by fueling New York’s welfare state to make the people dependent on government. George Soros has always wanted to control NYC, and now he has it in his pocket. The mayor has limited power and will not be able to implement all the lavish promises he spewed at the podium. Yet this is a big step toward converting cities and then states to destabilize the collectiveness of the United States in the hopes that its place as the world’s superpower will vanish.

So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor @ZohranKMamdani ???? pic.twitter.com/nvR5Zb46TI — Alex Soros (@AlexanderSoros) November 5, 2025 Alex Soros, heir to the Open Society Foundations, publicly congratulated Zohran Mamdani on securing the far left’s position in New York. “So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor Zohran Mamdani,” Soros wrote. Zohran Mamdani is NOT an anti-establishment candidate—he is an anti-Trump and anti-American puppet installed by the billionaire globalists. Neo-Marxists only want to eat the rich who do not support their causes. But first, they need to starve and confuse the masses so that they target the “rich” rather than the government. Soros paid good money to help Mamdani’s campaign, donating between $24 to $37 million on groups like DSA and Working Families Party that supported the Democratic candidate. President Donald Trump previously suggested that Alex and George Soros be charged with RICO due to their open support for violent protests across the nation, with the most recent one surrounding Palestine. “George Soros, and his Wonderful Radical Left son, should be charged with RICO because of their support of Violent Protests, and much more, all throughout the United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We’re not going to allow these lunatics to rip apart America any more, never giving it so much as a chance to ‘BREATHE,’ and be FREE.” What happens when neo-Marxism combines with Islam? New York will be the test subject. Mamdani famously supported the slogan, “Globalize the intifada,” which he hailed as “a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights.” He supports the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, and refuses to denounce Shira Law. “I think critiques of the state of Israel are critiques of a government, as opposed to critiques of a people and of a faith,” Mamdani said. “And my job is to represent every single New Yorker, and I will do so no matter their thoughts and opinions on Israel and Palestine, of which millions of New Yorkers have very strong views — and I’m one of them.” He is not against the Jews, like his friend Alex Soros; he is simply against all things Western. As George Soros said in 1995: “The transformation of a closed society into an open one is a systematic transformation. Practically everything has to change and there is no blueprint. What the foundations have done is to change the way the transformation is brought about. They mobilized the energies of the people in the countries concerned.” Mamdani is the puppet that will be used to lead the mobilization of globalization, starting by fueling New York’s welfare state to make the people dependent on government. George Soros has always wanted to control NYC, and now he has it in his pocket. The mayor has limited power and will not be able to implement all the lavish promises he spewed at the podium. Yet this is a big step toward converting cities and then states to destabilize the collectiveness of the United States in the hopes that its place as the world’s superpower will vanish.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor @ZohranKMamdani ???? pic.twitter.com/nvR5Zb46TI — Alex Soros (@AlexanderSoros) November 5, 2025 Alex Soros, heir to the Open Society Foundations, publicly congratulated Zohran Mamdani on securing the far left’s position in New York. “So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor Zohran Mamdani,” Soros wrote. Zohran Mamdani is NOT an anti-establishment candidate—he is an anti-Trump and anti-American puppet installed by the billionaire globalists. Neo-Marxists only want to eat the rich who do not support their causes. But first, they need to starve and confuse the masses so that they target the “rich” rather than the government. Soros paid good money to help Mamdani’s campaign, donating between $24 to $37 million on groups like DSA and Working Families Party that supported the Democratic candidate. President Donald Trump previously suggested that Alex and George Soros be charged with RICO due to their open support for violent protests across the nation, with the most recent one surrounding Palestine. “George Soros, and his Wonderful Radical Left son, should be charged with RICO because of their support of Violent Protests, and much more, all throughout the United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We’re not going to allow these lunatics to rip apart America any more, never giving it so much as a chance to ‘BREATHE,’ and be FREE.” What happens when neo-Marxism combines with Islam? New York will be the test subject. Mamdani famously supported the slogan, “Globalize the intifada,” which he hailed as “a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights.” He supports the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, and refuses to denounce Shira Law. “I think critiques of the state of Israel are critiques of a government, as opposed to critiques of a people and of a faith,” Mamdani said. “And my job is to represent every single New Yorker, and I will do so no matter their thoughts and opinions on Israel and Palestine, of which millions of New Yorkers have very strong views — and I’m one of them.” He is not against the Jews, like his friend Alex Soros; he is simply against all things Western. As George Soros said in 1995: “The transformation of a closed society into an open one is a systematic transformation. Practically everything has to change and there is no blueprint. What the foundations have done is to change the way the transformation is brought about. They mobilized the energies of the people in the countries concerned.” Mamdani is the puppet that will be used to lead the mobilization of globalization, starting by fueling New York’s welfare state to make the people dependent on government. George Soros has always wanted to control NYC, and now he has it in his pocket. The mayor has limited power and will not be able to implement all the lavish promises he spewed at the podium. Yet this is a big step toward converting cities and then states to destabilize the collectiveness of the United States in the hopes that its place as the world’s superpower will vanish.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor @ZohranKMamdani ???? pic.twitter.com/nvR5Zb46TI — Alex Soros (@AlexanderSoros) November 5, 2025 Alex Soros, heir to the Open Society Foundations, publicly congratulated Zohran Mamdani on securing the far left’s position in New York. “So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor Zohran Mamdani,” Soros wrote. Zohran Mamdani is NOT an anti-establishment candidate—he is an anti-Trump and anti-American puppet installed by the billionaire globalists. Neo-Marxists only want to eat the rich who do not support their causes. But first, they need to starve and confuse the masses so that they target the “rich” rather than the government. Soros paid good money to help Mamdani’s campaign, donating between $24 to $37 million on groups like DSA and Working Families Party that supported the Democratic candidate. President Donald Trump previously suggested that Alex and George Soros be charged with RICO due to their open support for violent protests across the nation, with the most recent one surrounding Palestine. “George Soros, and his Wonderful Radical Left son, should be charged with RICO because of their support of Violent Protests, and much more, all throughout the United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We’re not going to allow these lunatics to rip apart America any more, never giving it so much as a chance to ‘BREATHE,’ and be FREE.” What happens when neo-Marxism combines with Islam? New York will be the test subject. Mamdani famously supported the slogan, “Globalize the intifada,” which he hailed as “a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights.” He supports the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, and refuses to denounce Shira Law. “I think critiques of the state of Israel are critiques of a government, as opposed to critiques of a people and of a faith,” Mamdani said. “And my job is to represent every single New Yorker, and I will do so no matter their thoughts and opinions on Israel and Palestine, of which millions of New Yorkers have very strong views — and I’m one of them.” He is not against the Jews, like his friend Alex Soros; he is simply against all things Western. As George Soros said in 1995: “The transformation of a closed society into an open one is a systematic transformation. Practically everything has to change and there is no blueprint. What the foundations have done is to change the way the transformation is brought about. They mobilized the energies of the people in the countries concerned.” Mamdani is the puppet that will be used to lead the mobilization of globalization, starting by fueling New York’s welfare state to make the people dependent on government. George Soros has always wanted to control NYC, and now he has it in his pocket. The mayor has limited power and will not be able to implement all the lavish promises he spewed at the podium. Yet this is a big step toward converting cities and then states to destabilize the collectiveness of the United States in the hopes that its place as the world’s superpower will vanish.

So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor @ZohranKMamdani ???? pic.twitter.com/nvR5Zb46TI — Alex Soros (@AlexanderSoros) November 5, 2025 Alex Soros, heir to the Open Society Foundations, publicly congratulated Zohran Mamdani on securing the far left’s position in New York. “So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues! Congrats, Mayor Zohran Mamdani,” Soros wrote. Zohran Mamdani is NOT an anti-establishment candidate—he is an anti-Trump and anti-American puppet installed by the billionaire globalists. Neo-Marxists only want to eat the rich who do not support their causes. But first, they need to starve and confuse the masses so that they target the “rich” rather than the government. Soros paid good money to help Mamdani’s campaign, donating between $24 to $37 million on groups like DSA and Working Families Party that supported the Democratic candidate. President Donald Trump previously suggested that Alex and George Soros be charged with RICO due to their open support for violent protests across the nation, with the most recent one surrounding Palestine. “George Soros, and his Wonderful Radical Left son, should be charged with RICO because of their support of Violent Protests, and much more, all throughout the United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We’re not going to allow these lunatics to rip apart America any more, never giving it so much as a chance to ‘BREATHE,’ and be FREE.” What happens when neo-Marxism combines with Islam? New York will be the test subject. Mamdani famously supported the slogan, “Globalize the intifada,” which he hailed as “a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights.” He supports the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, and refuses to denounce Shira Law. “I think critiques of the state of Israel are critiques of a government, as opposed to critiques of a people and of a faith,” Mamdani said. “And my job is to represent every single New Yorker, and I will do so no matter their thoughts and opinions on Israel and Palestine, of which millions of New Yorkers have very strong views — and I’m one of them.” He is not against the Jews, like his friend Alex Soros; he is simply against all things Western. As George Soros said in 1995: “The transformation of a closed society into an open one is a systematic transformation. Practically everything has to change and there is no blueprint. What the foundations have done is to change the way the transformation is brought about. They mobilized the energies of the people in the countries concerned.” Mamdani is the puppet that will be used to lead the mobilization of globalization, starting by fueling New York’s welfare state to make the people dependent on government. George Soros has always wanted to control NYC, and now he has it in his pocket. The mayor has limited power and will not be able to implement all the lavish promises he spewed at the podium. Yet this is a big step toward converting cities and then states to destabilize the collectiveness of the United States in the hopes that its place as the world’s superpower will vanish.

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.  

Leer en Español Merchandise exports from Asia (excluding Japan) fell 5.3% year on year in 2023, the sharpest decline since 2015. This was chiefly due to a downturn in the global electronics cycle—electronics are the region’s key export—as firms ran down the large inventories they had accumulated during the pandemic rather than making new purchases. But in recent months the tide has turned, and our Consensus is for further rises in exports from Asia in coming quarters. AI boom helps exports from Asia to recover After many months of continuous contractions, goods exports from Asia finally returned to growth in Q4 2023 in many of the region’s key exporters, such as China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And this improvement has continued this year, with export readings often beating the market forecast; Taiwan’s March exports growth was more than double analysts’ forecasts, for instance. The gradual exhaustion of the electronics destocking cycle and the surge in demand for AI applications around the world is buoying demand for the region’s IT exports—particularly for semiconductors, the backbone of the AI industry. Upgrades to the market forecast Since the end of last year, our Consensus for growth of goods exports from Asia (excluding Japan) in 2024 and 2025 has roughly doubled to 2.2% and 4.4%, respectively, with further upgrades possible in the months ahead. These readings would be higher still were it not for China, whose export growth is set to be muted due to Western trade and tech restrictions, plus overcapacity in some sectors weighing on export prices. Risks to the outlook for exports from Asia are elevated Not everything will be plain sailing for exports from Asia in the coming years. As well as the aforementioned difficulties faced by China, rising protectionism in the West more generally is a key risk to the region as a whole. If Donald Trump clinches the U.S. presidency, he has threatened to jack up tariffs not just on China but also on the wider world, which could rewire the global trade environment—and not in Asia’s favor. Adding to this, the EU is also aiming to build greater autonomy in key strategic sectors such as electric batteries and microchips. And in the Middle East, conflict could further disrupt trade flows; shipping via the Red Sea has already been interrupted this year by Houthi attacks.   Insight from our panelists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh, research analysts at Nomura, spoke about the upbeat economic outlook for the region: “The most important factor underpinning our positive cyclical view is the turn in the goods cycle, which we believe is transitioning from a recovery to an expansionary phase. This is mainly led by semiconductors, due to the end of the inventory correction phase and rising AI demand. As such, the benefits should percolate largely to the open,tech-oriented economies in the region.” On the impact of Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “The 2018-19 trade war did slow China’s economic growth, in our view. We estimated a cumulative drag of 0.65pp on the level of GDP in China through channels such as lower exports, increased uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. If we were to linearly extrapolate our estimates but adjust for the now-smaller share of Chinese exports that go directly to the US, then a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would reduce China’s real GDP by around 2pp.” Our latest analysis Argentina’s exports rose in March. Inflation in France fell in March.