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“These were the first glorious days of general speculation. Railroads were emerging from the hands of the greater into the fingers of the lesser capitalists. Two successful harvests had given a fearful stimulus to the national energy; and it appeared perfectly certain that all the populous towns would be united, and the rich agricultural districts intersected, by the magical bands of iron.” So wrote W.E. Aytoun in his satirical novel How we got up the Glenmutchkin Railway. The book was published in 1845, with the UK in the grips of a frenzy which saw investors tripping over each other to pile into railway shares, bewitched by promises of a revolutionary mode of transport, a huge untapped market and spectacular profit growth. Even the likes of Charles Darwin and the Brontë sisters were swept up by the hype. Private firms hatched grandiose investment plans, submitted hundreds of bills to parliament for new railway lines, and saw their share prices roughly double in the space of a few years. Government was obliging; in 1845, it authorized around 3,000 miles of track, roughly as much as the previous 15 years combined. And at its peak, railway investment—which lagged a few years behind planning applications—surged to 7% of GDP, representing half of total investment in the economy at the time. Haresfield railway station. Station in 1961 with BR Standard Class 9F 92151 working the Pines Express. The phenomenon may have been highly localized, but it shares uncanny similarities to other bubbles which have cropped up time after time in the succeeding centuries: irrational exuberance among investors, a gradual shift into the mainstream of what was a hitherto niche pursuit, and inflated claims by firms—to name a few. For a concise view of global macro projections, see our Consensus Forecast. The Birth of the Bubble The seeds of the boom were sown more than a decade earlier, with the opening in 1830 of the world’s first commercial passenger railway line between Liverpool and Manchester, two burgeoning cities of the new industrial age. The UK was at the time fast becoming the world’s preeminent manufacturing powerhouse, and railways promised to catalyze the revolution underway, making it possible to move vast quantities of raw materials and finished goods more cheaply and quickly than ever before. Until then, few people had considered the possibility of using trains to transport passengers. Many investors were actively opposed, arguing it would be all but impossible to encourage people to swap horse-drawn coaches for such noisy and potentially dangerous newfangled contraptions.  However, against expectations, the Liverpool-Manchester line was a roaring success. Rail passengers far outnumbered coach travelers who had formerly used the same route; at the same time, the railway became wildly profitable, and investors were showered with dividend payments. Investors now had hard proof that passenger railways could be money-making machines. However, although there was a spike in interest in rail shares in the mid-1830s, it was only several years later that Railway Mania truly took hold. This was partly because the Bank of England cut rates in the early 1840s, lowering financing costs and creating fertile ground for the bubble to come. But it was also because stocks could be purchased with just a 10% deposit, massively expanding the investor base. In this regard, there are glaring similarities with the 1920s U.S. stock market boom, which saw the emergence of millions of middle-class shareholders who bought stocks “on margin”. Parallels can also be drawn with the early 2000s subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S.; a combination of the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary stance and low down payments saw scores of Americans with dubious credit records get a tenuous toehold on the housing ladder. Freewheeling Capitalism With railway stocks now tantalizingly within reach of Britain’s emerging middle class, companies pulled out all the stops to market themselves to investors. Railway firms aggressively pushed their own shares—particularly in newspapers, the new media of the age. In late 1845, railway ads covered over half the space in many papers. Such ads were awash with inflated claims, optimistic revenue projections and questionable accounting practices, whipping up euphoria among investors. Liverpool & Manchester Railway – engraving by I. Shaw showing the inauguration of the railroad line. The official convoy is stopped in front of the Moorish Arch in Liverpool Station. What’s more, the accountancy profession was in its infancy; the government set no nationwide accounting standards, and the first professional accounting bodies would not appear for another few decades.Independent auditing was not a widespread practice; William Deloitte, the father of the modern consultancy firm, carried out one of the very first such audits on the Great Western Railway as late as 1849, several years after the Mania had subsided. As such, information regarding company accounts and future business prospects was surrounded by a thick fog of uncertainty. Some businessmen even engaged in downright deception. A prime example was George Hudson; the so-called railway king—who at his peak single-handedly controlled over 1,000 miles of track and became one of the wealthiest industrialists of the day—ran a Ponzi-like scheme, paying dividends out of company capital. Accounting standards have improved immeasurably over the subsequent centuries. Nevertheless, huge scandals continue to emerge today even in developed economies, with firms and governments engaged in a constant game of regulatory cat and mouse. Take the collapse of U.S. energy giant Enron in the early 2000s, which made skillful use of mark-to-market accounting to inflate profits, and special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to shield its mounting debt pile from prying public eyes. In response, governments around the world overhauled their legal frameworks. But the scandals keep coming. One of interest is UK construction company Carillion, which was roundly criticized for failing to impair goodwill on its balance sheet, even when the underlying assets had fallen in value. Many speculate that there may be an AI bubble brewing today. However, perhaps the most analogous situation of all is the telecoms bubble of the late 1990s. Drunk on the prospect of a disruptive new technology—and

Keenan Norris Class and an American reckoning. The post Community Colleges at the Crossroads appeared first on The Nation.

Or, “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth!” If (1) private NFP as measured by BLS equals ADP private NFP in October, ADP private NFP consensus gain of 28K is realized, (3) the 100K government employees signed up under the deferred resignation program (DRP), who effectively resigned on September 30, were not re-employed by the week of October 12th, and (4) net government employment gain is zero, then we have the following picture. Figure 1: ADP Private nonfarm payroll employment (blue, left scale), Bloomberg consensus implied employment (light blue square, left scale); BLS benchmark-implied nonfarm payroll employment (black, right scale), implied NFP (chartreuse, right scale), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: ADP, BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations. The chartreuse line assumes +54K for September, per Bloomberg consensus, and -72K (change in private NFP of +28K, -100K for government employees). This path is upwardly biased insofar as (1) ADP private NFP has been rising faster than preliminary benchmarked BLS private NFP (but slower than nonbenchmarked), and (2) total government employment dropped 16K in August, even in the absence of the deferred resignation program participants registering as losses.  

Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret  spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.” Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats. Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden. It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others. Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans. Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records. We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG — FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025 Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred. “Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role. Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go. Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned. Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive. “If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned. The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.

“These were the first glorious days of general speculation. Railroads were emerging from the hands of the greater into the fingers of the lesser capitalists. Two successful harvests had given a fearful stimulus to the national energy; and it appeared perfectly certain that all the populous towns would be united, and the rich agricultural districts intersected, by the magical bands of iron.” So wrote W.E. Aytoun in his satirical novel How we got up the Glenmutchkin Railway. The book was published in 1845, with the UK in the grips of a frenzy which saw investors tripping over each other to pile into railway shares, bewitched by promises of a revolutionary mode of transport, a huge untapped market and spectacular profit growth. Even the likes of Charles Darwin and the Brontë sisters were swept up by the hype. Private firms hatched grandiose investment plans, submitted hundreds of bills to parliament for new railway lines, and saw their share prices roughly double in the space of a few years. Government was obliging; in 1845, it authorized around 3,000 miles of track, roughly as much as the previous 15 years combined. And at its peak, railway investment—which lagged a few years behind planning applications—surged to 7% of GDP, representing half of total investment in the economy at the time. Haresfield railway station. Station in 1961 with BR Standard Class 9F 92151 working the Pines Express. The phenomenon may have been highly localized, but it shares uncanny similarities to other bubbles which have cropped up time after time in the succeeding centuries: irrational exuberance among investors, a gradual shift into the mainstream of what was a hitherto niche pursuit, and inflated claims by firms—to name a few. For a concise view of global macro projections, see our Consensus Forecast. The Birth of the Bubble The seeds of the boom were sown more than a decade earlier, with the opening in 1830 of the world’s first commercial passenger railway line between Liverpool and Manchester, two burgeoning cities of the new industrial age. The UK was at the time fast becoming the world’s preeminent manufacturing powerhouse, and railways promised to catalyze the revolution underway, making it possible to move vast quantities of raw materials and finished goods more cheaply and quickly than ever before. Until then, few people had considered the possibility of using trains to transport passengers. Many investors were actively opposed, arguing it would be all but impossible to encourage people to swap horse-drawn coaches for such noisy and potentially dangerous newfangled contraptions.  However, against expectations, the Liverpool-Manchester line was a roaring success. Rail passengers far outnumbered coach travelers who had formerly used the same route; at the same time, the railway became wildly profitable, and investors were showered with dividend payments. Investors now had hard proof that passenger railways could be money-making machines. However, although there was a spike in interest in rail shares in the mid-1830s, it was only several years later that Railway Mania truly took hold. This was partly because the Bank of England cut rates in the early 1840s, lowering financing costs and creating fertile ground for the bubble to come. But it was also because stocks could be purchased with just a 10% deposit, massively expanding the investor base. In this regard, there are glaring similarities with the 1920s U.S. stock market boom, which saw the emergence of millions of middle-class shareholders who bought stocks “on margin”. Parallels can also be drawn with the early 2000s subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S.; a combination of the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary stance and low down payments saw scores of Americans with dubious credit records get a tenuous toehold on the housing ladder. Freewheeling Capitalism With railway stocks now tantalizingly within reach of Britain’s emerging middle class, companies pulled out all the stops to market themselves to investors. Railway firms aggressively pushed their own shares—particularly in newspapers, the new media of the age. In late 1845, railway ads covered over half the space in many papers. Such ads were awash with inflated claims, optimistic revenue projections and questionable accounting practices, whipping up euphoria among investors. Liverpool & Manchester Railway – engraving by I. Shaw showing the inauguration of the railroad line. The official convoy is stopped in front of the Moorish Arch in Liverpool Station. What’s more, the accountancy profession was in its infancy; the government set no nationwide accounting standards, and the first professional accounting bodies would not appear for another few decades.Independent auditing was not a widespread practice; William Deloitte, the father of the modern consultancy firm, carried out one of the very first such audits on the Great Western Railway as late as 1849, several years after the Mania had subsided. As such, information regarding company accounts and future business prospects was surrounded by a thick fog of uncertainty. Some businessmen even engaged in downright deception. A prime example was George Hudson; the so-called railway king—who at his peak single-handedly controlled over 1,000 miles of track and became one of the wealthiest industrialists of the day—ran a Ponzi-like scheme, paying dividends out of company capital. Accounting standards have improved immeasurably over the subsequent centuries. Nevertheless, huge scandals continue to emerge today even in developed economies, with firms and governments engaged in a constant game of regulatory cat and mouse. Take the collapse of U.S. energy giant Enron in the early 2000s, which made skillful use of mark-to-market accounting to inflate profits, and special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to shield its mounting debt pile from prying public eyes. In response, governments around the world overhauled their legal frameworks. But the scandals keep coming. One of interest is UK construction company Carillion, which was roundly criticized for failing to impair goodwill on its balance sheet, even when the underlying assets had fallen in value. Many speculate that there may be an AI bubble brewing today. However, perhaps the most analogous situation of all is the telecoms bubble of the late 1990s. Drunk on the prospect of a disruptive new technology—and

Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret  spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.” Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats. Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden. It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others. Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans. Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records. We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG — FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025 Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred. “Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role. Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go. Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned. Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive. “If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned. The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.

Peter Kuper, Anonymous Pulling the strings to undo democracy. The post Russ Vought, Project 2025’s Architect of Destruction appeared first on The Nation.

Both Michigan Sentiment and CB Confidence declined in October. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations. Regarding the demographic characteristics of the responses, I found this the most interesting. … By income, confidence fell for consumers making less than $75K a year, but improved for most of the income groups making more than $75K, with the largest increase among those earning over $200K. …By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Independents, declined among Democrats, and was also slightly down among Republicans. If optimism remains higher among higher income groups, then the likelihood that consumption growth remains positive is higher.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have said many times that we are in a phase in which this time it will be the fall of republics, whereas the last time it was monarchy. Could you comment on this? It seems that the Democrats in this shutdown want billions for their illegal aliens while they hurt American citizens. Is this the type of polarization who have been warned about, which brings the house of cards crashing down? PT ANSWER: Historically, the intense division between fundamental political factions is not just a symptom of a republic in trouble, but the very disease that always kills it. The fall occurs when the conflict shifts from “how should we govern?” to “who are we as a people?” and is fought with tools outside the established republican framework. Intense polarization is the warning sign. Political disagreement shifts from policy-based to identity-based. It’s no longer “I disagree with your plan for the economy” but “You and your kind are a threat to the nation itself.” The political opponent becomes an enemy. We are witnessing polarization within republics in the US, Canada, and Europe, to name just a few. The Democrats see Trump as the “enemy” and constantly claim this is a crisis in democracy because it is not their way alone. We have crossed the Rubicon, and there is now no going back. This shutdown is the confirmation of the decline and fall of the United States, as well as all the rest. I warned at the last WEC in 2024 that the Democratic Party would split, and it is in its collapsing phase. The Optimates faction of Senators who crowned themselves with the title boni  (“the good men”), like a judge who demands to be “honorable” without earning that title, was led by Cato, who was a ruthless power-monger. They were deeply corrupt in their abuse of political norms. They used procedural obstructions, filibusters, and religious technicalities (omens) to block legislation and appointments they disliked, making the normal political process unworkable for anyone outside their clique. When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49 BC, the people cheered, and the cities opened their gates. He did NOT fight his way to Rome. The Senate fled because they had no popular support, any more than our Congress does today. History repeats because human nature never changes.

Leer en Español From currency peg to currency band: Until 2005, China’s renminbi was pegged at CNY 8.3 per USD. From that moment on the government shifted to a managed float, allowing the currency to move within 2% of a daily rate set by China’s central bank, the PBOC. This change led the renminbi to depreciate by around a quarter over the decade that followed—a consequence of China’s massive trade surplus. Afterwards, from the mid-2010s to 2022, the currency further lost value as investors soured on China’s economy and the PBOC reduced its intervention in the FX market. Over the last two years, however, the currency has been broadly stable, largely as the PBOC has itself set a fairly stable exchange rate in order to limit depreciatory pressures. As a result, the renminbi has recently traded more like a currency that’s de facto pegged in a narrow trading band.  Renminbi internationalization still in the early stages: The Chinese government is making an effort to boost the attractiveness of the renminbi overseas. A decade ago the authorities introduced the cross-border international payment system (CIPS) as an alternative to the U.S.-dominated SWIFT system. Beijing has signed renminbi swap lines with dozens of foreign central banks, and pushed to settle more of its own trade in domestic currency. However, the renminbi still accounts for just 2% of international currency usage, compared to over 50% for the U.S. dollar. Restrictions on the exchange rate—which as mentioned have increased in the last couple of years—plus capital controls and concerns over sudden shifts in policymaking are likely to preclude the CNY from unseating the USD as the world reserve currency any time soon.  Our panelists’ forecasts for the exchange rate: The Consensus of the 50+ panelists we poll is for China’s renminbi to gradually appreciate over the coming years, and to move back below CNY 7.0 per USD by the end of the decade; monetary easing by the Federal Reserve will narrow the interest rate gap between the U.S. and China. However, any moves in the exchange rate are likely to be gradual, given the government’s focus on preserving stability above all else.   Insight from our panelists:  On the short-term outlook for the currency, Goldman Sachs analysts said:  “CNY continues to screen as significantly undervalued, with the degree of undervaluation now comparable again to the period of the China shock in the mid-2000s. While there is always substantial uncertainty around FX fair value metrics, recent economic performance—large export market share gains and a surge in the current account surplus—help corroborate these model estimates.”   On the outlook for renminbi internationalization, EIU analysts said:   “China will promote the use of the renminbi as a reliable international currency, at a time when confidence in the US dollar is eroded by Mr Trump’s policies. The outlook for reniminbi internationalisation is mixed, however. China could commit a greater amount of overseas aid and loans, along with other forms of support (including in supply chains), in exchange for the expansion of the renminbi’s role in global settlement and financing, as well as a reserve currency. Nevertheless, despite the growing percentage of the renminbi in trade settlement, the currency continues to make up less than 2% of global trade invoicing—suggesting limited (albeit growing) uptake in international trade. The renminbi will not emerge as a credible substitute to the US dollar in the medium term.” Our latest analysis:  New Zealand’s central bank slashed interest rates in October.  Germany’s industrial production slumped in August.  The post How will China’s currency fare in the coming years?  appeared first on FocusEconomics.