Economic News

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/1987-Larry.mp4   COMMENT: Marty, I have been with you since 1987. I have watched your Economic Confidence Model blow everyone out of the water, and your critics are just idiots who are either genuinely just stupid or they are paid by the “club” to try to prevent people from listening to you. Anyone who criticizes you is not trustworthy. The world should take notice of what you discovered. I saw your ECM predict the 1987 crash to the day. The Japanese Crash. The 1998 July 20th high in the markets. The 2002 low. There are so many events on the exact day that there can be no dispute that this is not your opinion, yet people try to ignore you, and others hate you. Now, May 15th was the exact day for the peach talks, and June 2nd was Russia’s Pearl Harbor. Everyone should send letters demanding that you get the Nobel Peace Prize for humanity’s sake. L REPLY: I understand what you are saying. Yes, I can see that a Nobel Prize might help focus attention on the reality of cycles. However, the Economic Confidence Model is something I bumped into, and I had assumed it would be an average. Never in my wildest imagination did I ever expect that such a model would work precisely to the day for countless geopolitical events, like 911, to the very day, and the same exact frequency picks the events here in May to June 2025. I just do not know. Do I deserve a Nobel Prize for something I myself cannot entirely explain that exists when all the conventional thinking says that it can’t be? I am working diligently on my next book, the Economic Confidence Model. Perhaps then let the world judge. How many coincidences does it take to prove there is a hidden order lurking behind the appearance of random chaos?

COMMENT: Dear Marty! These are original advertising posters for war bonds from 1914-1918 from the former monarchy. I thought this might be of interest to you. I took the photos myself here. I hereby grant you all rights for publication on your blog. Many people all over the world owe you and your tireless efforts an enormous amount. I am Austrian. We, my wife and sons of military age, their friends, and our first grandson, are going to Paraguay in South America. We’ve had permanent residence permits since 2017. Very few people here in Europe want to know or acknowledge the terrible things that await them. Even if there is no war, the economic misery will be bad enough to make Europe a poor continent for a long time to come. Young people will have a very hard time building something for themselves here in Europe after 2030. I saw how people in the Eastern Bloc lived in poverty before the opening and even long after. Back then, they could go to Germany and other wealthy European countries. Germany and other formerly prosperous European countries will not be wealthy after 2030. The prosperity and opportunities for development that you and I had in our youth will no longer exist here after 2030. I live near Melk Abbey. Whenever you are in Austria, it would be a great pleasure and honor for me to show you the inside of the abbey and other historic sites in Austria. My old family connections within the monarchical system still work. Who knows for how long… In deep gratitude for everything you do for us ordinary people and the burden you have placed on yourself. Many thanks, GB REPLY: Thank you. I see that we are all in this together. I the town I grew up, my grandfather had Germans who migrated to the US before the war for they saw what was coming. Down the street from my mother was another German couple who also migrated before the war. I remember listening to their stories and how they saw the political trend and tried to warn friends but they thought they were extremists. I think growing up with those German neighbors exposed me to the horrors of war and how they had to leave their homeland when many thought they were nuts. I spoke with an attendee of the OSCE Vienna Peace Conference last week. He said they were not talking about peace, but that everyone needs to start drafting people for war with Russia. The Neocons have used Zelensky as their puppet to start World War III, just as the Greens used that 16-year-old Gretta. I have heard from others now in Europe that the press ONLY talks up war, and anybody who speaks against war is just Russian propaganda. These forecasts have come from the computer. It is the only fully functioning AI system in the world with more than a 40-year track record. At the 2011 WEC, I warned that the war cycle would turn up in 2014. In 2013, I posted a post saying this would start in Ukraine. Nobody speaks to me in the middle of the night. I am not clairvoyant. Nobody has a track record that can match the forecast I have done over the decades. This is why they made the movie The Forecaster, and the sequel should be out soon. Then they are making a Hollywood movie about my career with class A actors like the Big Short, all to show that there is order to this chaos. If it were just me, then there would be a shot of being wrong. It is not something I want to pound my chest and say, see I was right. I’d rather be wrong. My lawyer tells me I have to create a 501 (c) (3) to put Socrates into for if I died, the government would claim it’s worth several billion and demand inheritance taxes on such a value. My heirs would not have that type of cash so the government would seize it in the end. To a large extent, this has been my burden. So, to those people who think it’s just my opinion, they remind me of Bob Dylan’s song “It Ain’t Me Babe.”    

COMMENT #1: Thank you for your private blog. I can see that the turning points laid out in Socrates are indeed pressure points that then cause people to react as Trump just did. You were right. The 7th held. These people get hysterical and blab out forecasts on emotions, as you said. Thank you for the training. WY COMMENT #2: My Dear Mr. Armstrong much can be said and argue about these Tariffs you can write endless post about it but the bottom line is Trump and his advisors choose the WORST time in history ?to implement them -is like all hell broke loose ! Regular working class will pay the price already here in Ontario company are starting to fired people blaming guess who ? Unfortunately that how the game is play somebody has to be blame You must be very busy ,but don’t neglect your well being please ! GR REPLY: You are correct. We are all human and will respond to similar events in the same way and in the same amount of time, regardless of the country. The computer gave us the timing months in advance. The “fundamental” does not matter. My concern is that we are heading into a recession that started May 7th, 2024. I agree that the Democrats and media will blame Trump and his tariffs when this is part of the business cycle that will move into 2028. We are facing a sovereign debt crisis that will wipe out all debt by 2034. However, we are facing significant economic stress that pushes the Europeans to seek an external distraction, and that is Russia, to avoid dealing with the crumbling EU structure. They stripped Hungary of a right to vote and changed the rules that unanimous votes were necessary. Once you establish a centralized government,  they will always see more and more power. This is also why no government has ever survived long-term. Thrasymachus warned that JUSTICE is the same in every form of government – it is only the will of those in power. He said that more than 2000 years ago, and nothing has changed ever since. It is never a question of IF something will occur; it is merely a question of TIME – WHEN it will unfold. It is not a question of whether a society will rise against its oppressor; it is only a question of how much time it will require to move the majority of people to action. This is the same formula that governs when a market will crash. You may be able to raise your arm, but you cannot keep it up. You will run out of energy. So will markets or politics.   As I explained on the private blog, you can raise your arm but not keep it there. You will run out of energy, and it will become so heavy that you have to let it down. Markets are no different. As the white rabbit in Alice in Wonderland kept saying, “I’m late. I’m late.” It is the last frontier – It’s Just Time. As Margaret Thatcher said at our World Economic Conference   https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/thatcher-cycles.mp3  

I have been warning that we are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.  The total outstanding government and corporate bonds globally have now exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, as reported by the OECD. As I have also been warning, the central banks have been neutered. They can no longer fight inflation by raising interest rates because government debt just explodes. Governments have NO INTENTION of ever paying off their debt. They think there is no end to this game. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Lockdowns.mp4 COVID pushed most governments off the edge. You have the World Economic Forum pushing for lockdowns as wonderful because they were really about keeping people home and stopping their commuting to work to stop climate change. In the process, they undermined commercial real estate and sent debt levels soaring all for the planet. Then you have the Greens in Europe cheering World War III to destroy Russia because they are the biggest producer of fossil fuels. So, we now risk nuclear war to save the planet? This is like someone punching you in the face first and calling it self-defense because they knew you wanted to hit them first. They had two idiots listening to their nonsense: Biden, who would have asked if we get enough of the bastards to save the planet, and King Charles, who seems to be thoroughly brainwashed into the green movement. While central banks are cutting interest rates, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes because the ECM, in particular, went to negative interest rates in 2014, which only encouraged governments to issue more debt. This all comes at a time when the EU wants to fund an army and prepare for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029. In Germany, Mertz refused to form a normal government with the #2 party AfD. Instead, he chose to bring in the two parties that wanted war and were voted out. She said, “The corks are popping among the election losers, the SPD and the Greens.” Weidel appropriately added: “And accordingly, this is the death knell for the euro.” Mertz has abandoned the debt restraint of Germany to retain power. Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 20-26, and this does not bode well for Europe or the Euro. Nearly HALF of ALL outstanding government debt among OECD countries and emerging markets and around ONE THIRD of corporate debt will mature by 2027. Our computer is showing PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. The defaults come when you cannot sell the NEW debt to pay off the old. There are people who are repeating our forecast, pretending they are theirs. Nobody on a human level can possibly account for all the variables around the world. That cannot be done except by the only fully functioning AI system that has discovered the secret of time. No individual has the track record to back up their statements. This is not about “I think” nonsense. It is not my personal dream to have to live through my own computer’s forecasts. They think they can be in the limelight pretending these are their forecasts, but they are ill-equipped to actually see how and when this unfolds. On top of all of these, many emerging markets, including China and now even Canada, are issuing debt denominated in US dollars. The older issues have also lost on the foreign exchange. Carney in Canada has just demonstrated his true lack of understanding of financial markets. He dumped US Treasuries but then issued Canadian debt denominated in dollars. As the C$ declines, he will lose on the return of the foreign exchange as well. Even the OECD report found that the costs of borrowing through dollar-denominated bonds had risen from around 4% in 2020 to more than 6% in 2024, rising to more than 8% for riskier, junk-rated economies nations. The funding of NET-ZERO projects has been a huge loss. The OECD said funding the net-zero emissions would face a $10 trillion shortfall to meet Paris climate agreement goals by 2050. There is no way they can fund this, plus World War III and they never consider that everything is coming to the point of a major Sovereign Debt default that the government will not survive. Add the trade wars and what our model shows a major recession globally into 2028; it is hard to see how many countries can even make it to 2029.

I don’t think Starter understands. This is not marching into battle like in colonial days. Things have changed. The EU may be counting on fighting until the last Ukrainian, Romanian, and Polish, and then they can walk in and take Russia, but this is not shaping up as Europe thinks. Even North Korea has gained from the Ukrainian War. They are now learning an utterly new warfare game and are now up-to-date with knowledge about fighting a modern war with drones rather than jets flying overhead. According to our sources, North Korea has benefited tremendously from aiding Russia, not just by supporting its technological advances. Still, their troops are adapting to an entirely new warfare model that did not even exist during the Gulf War. North Korea has adapted to the rampant, cutting-edge drone warfare that has defined the conflict in Ukraine. If nobody has noticed, we do not see dogfights with fighter jets in the air. Those are the days of World War I. Russia has developed glid bombs and does not put their planes at risk of Ukraine. Warfare nowadays is different from even WWII or Vietnam. Everyone thinks that nuclear weapons are no longer a deterrent because nobody will push the button. That is just not the case. You cannot move in for the kill; someone will not press the button. I hate to point out, but China will commit any of its military forces to Russia’s war effort against NATO, for they are NOT stupid. Once the West took Russia, they would move against China. It is absurd to think that if NATO got involved in Ukraine, China would not join with Russia. Ukraine has told Newsweek that China is “not stupid.” Let’s get real: Ukraine puts out nothing but lies. They, of course, say to the press that for fear that NATO would not come in to destroy Russia. It is precisely the opposite. Trump has to keep the United States out of Europe’s death wish. There is absolutely no doubt that China and Russia will join together against NATO.