Economic News

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/1987-Larry.mp4   COMMENT: Marty, I have been with you since 1987. I have watched your Economic Confidence Model blow everyone out of the water, and your critics are just idiots who are either genuinely just stupid or they are paid by the “club” to try to prevent people from listening to you. Anyone who criticizes you is not trustworthy. The world should take notice of what you discovered. I saw your ECM predict the 1987 crash to the day. The Japanese Crash. The 1998 July 20th high in the markets. The 2002 low. There are so many events on the exact day that there can be no dispute that this is not your opinion, yet people try to ignore you, and others hate you. Now, May 15th was the exact day for the peach talks, and June 2nd was Russia’s Pearl Harbor. Everyone should send letters demanding that you get the Nobel Peace Prize for humanity’s sake. L REPLY: I understand what you are saying. Yes, I can see that a Nobel Prize might help focus attention on the reality of cycles. However, the Economic Confidence Model is something I bumped into, and I had assumed it would be an average. Never in my wildest imagination did I ever expect that such a model would work precisely to the day for countless geopolitical events, like 911, to the very day, and the same exact frequency picks the events here in May to June 2025. I just do not know. Do I deserve a Nobel Prize for something I myself cannot entirely explain that exists when all the conventional thinking says that it can’t be? I am working diligently on my next book, the Economic Confidence Model. Perhaps then let the world judge. How many coincidences does it take to prove there is a hidden order lurking behind the appearance of random chaos?

COMMENT: Dear Marty! These are original advertising posters for war bonds from 1914-1918 from the former monarchy. I thought this might be of interest to you. I took the photos myself here. I hereby grant you all rights for publication on your blog. Many people all over the world owe you and your tireless efforts an enormous amount. I am Austrian. We, my wife and sons of military age, their friends, and our first grandson, are going to Paraguay in South America. We’ve had permanent residence permits since 2017. Very few people here in Europe want to know or acknowledge the terrible things that await them. Even if there is no war, the economic misery will be bad enough to make Europe a poor continent for a long time to come. Young people will have a very hard time building something for themselves here in Europe after 2030. I saw how people in the Eastern Bloc lived in poverty before the opening and even long after. Back then, they could go to Germany and other wealthy European countries. Germany and other formerly prosperous European countries will not be wealthy after 2030. The prosperity and opportunities for development that you and I had in our youth will no longer exist here after 2030. I live near Melk Abbey. Whenever you are in Austria, it would be a great pleasure and honor for me to show you the inside of the abbey and other historic sites in Austria. My old family connections within the monarchical system still work. Who knows for how long… In deep gratitude for everything you do for us ordinary people and the burden you have placed on yourself. Many thanks, GB REPLY: Thank you. I see that we are all in this together. I the town I grew up, my grandfather had Germans who migrated to the US before the war for they saw what was coming. Down the street from my mother was another German couple who also migrated before the war. I remember listening to their stories and how they saw the political trend and tried to warn friends but they thought they were extremists. I think growing up with those German neighbors exposed me to the horrors of war and how they had to leave their homeland when many thought they were nuts. I spoke with an attendee of the OSCE Vienna Peace Conference last week. He said they were not talking about peace, but that everyone needs to start drafting people for war with Russia. The Neocons have used Zelensky as their puppet to start World War III, just as the Greens used that 16-year-old Gretta. I have heard from others now in Europe that the press ONLY talks up war, and anybody who speaks against war is just Russian propaganda. These forecasts have come from the computer. It is the only fully functioning AI system in the world with more than a 40-year track record. At the 2011 WEC, I warned that the war cycle would turn up in 2014. In 2013, I posted a post saying this would start in Ukraine. Nobody speaks to me in the middle of the night. I am not clairvoyant. Nobody has a track record that can match the forecast I have done over the decades. This is why they made the movie The Forecaster, and the sequel should be out soon. Then they are making a Hollywood movie about my career with class A actors like the Big Short, all to show that there is order to this chaos. If it were just me, then there would be a shot of being wrong. It is not something I want to pound my chest and say, see I was right. I’d rather be wrong. My lawyer tells me I have to create a 501 (c) (3) to put Socrates into for if I died, the government would claim it’s worth several billion and demand inheritance taxes on such a value. My heirs would not have that type of cash so the government would seize it in the end. To a large extent, this has been my burden. So, to those people who think it’s just my opinion, they remind me of Bob Dylan’s song “It Ain’t Me Babe.”    

COMMENT #1: Thank you for your private blog. I can see that the turning points laid out in Socrates are indeed pressure points that then cause people to react as Trump just did. You were right. The 7th held. These people get hysterical and blab out forecasts on emotions, as you said. Thank you for the training. WY COMMENT #2: My Dear Mr. Armstrong much can be said and argue about these Tariffs you can write endless post about it but the bottom line is Trump and his advisors choose the WORST time in history ?to implement them -is like all hell broke loose ! Regular working class will pay the price already here in Ontario company are starting to fired people blaming guess who ? Unfortunately that how the game is play somebody has to be blame You must be very busy ,but don’t neglect your well being please ! GR REPLY: You are correct. We are all human and will respond to similar events in the same way and in the same amount of time, regardless of the country. The computer gave us the timing months in advance. The “fundamental” does not matter. My concern is that we are heading into a recession that started May 7th, 2024. I agree that the Democrats and media will blame Trump and his tariffs when this is part of the business cycle that will move into 2028. We are facing a sovereign debt crisis that will wipe out all debt by 2034. However, we are facing significant economic stress that pushes the Europeans to seek an external distraction, and that is Russia, to avoid dealing with the crumbling EU structure. They stripped Hungary of a right to vote and changed the rules that unanimous votes were necessary. Once you establish a centralized government,  they will always see more and more power. This is also why no government has ever survived long-term. Thrasymachus warned that JUSTICE is the same in every form of government – it is only the will of those in power. He said that more than 2000 years ago, and nothing has changed ever since. It is never a question of IF something will occur; it is merely a question of TIME – WHEN it will unfold. It is not a question of whether a society will rise against its oppressor; it is only a question of how much time it will require to move the majority of people to action. This is the same formula that governs when a market will crash. You may be able to raise your arm, but you cannot keep it up. You will run out of energy. So will markets or politics.   As I explained on the private blog, you can raise your arm but not keep it there. You will run out of energy, and it will become so heavy that you have to let it down. Markets are no different. As the white rabbit in Alice in Wonderland kept saying, “I’m late. I’m late.” It is the last frontier – It’s Just Time. As Margaret Thatcher said at our World Economic Conference   https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/thatcher-cycles.mp3