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Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret  spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.” Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats. Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden. It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others. Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans. Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records. We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG — FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025 Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred. “Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role. Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go. Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned. Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive. “If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned. The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.

Peter Kuper, Anonymous Pulling the strings to undo democracy. The post Russ Vought, Project 2025’s Architect of Destruction appeared first on The Nation.

Both Michigan Sentiment and CB Confidence declined in October. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations. Regarding the demographic characteristics of the responses, I found this the most interesting. … By income, confidence fell for consumers making less than $75K a year, but improved for most of the income groups making more than $75K, with the largest increase among those earning over $200K. …By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Independents, declined among Democrats, and was also slightly down among Republicans. If optimism remains higher among higher income groups, then the likelihood that consumption growth remains positive is higher.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have said many times that we are in a phase in which this time it will be the fall of republics, whereas the last time it was monarchy. Could you comment on this? It seems that the Democrats in this shutdown want billions for their illegal aliens while they hurt American citizens. Is this the type of polarization who have been warned about, which brings the house of cards crashing down? PT ANSWER: Historically, the intense division between fundamental political factions is not just a symptom of a republic in trouble, but the very disease that always kills it. The fall occurs when the conflict shifts from “how should we govern?” to “who are we as a people?” and is fought with tools outside the established republican framework. Intense polarization is the warning sign. Political disagreement shifts from policy-based to identity-based. It’s no longer “I disagree with your plan for the economy” but “You and your kind are a threat to the nation itself.” The political opponent becomes an enemy. We are witnessing polarization within republics in the US, Canada, and Europe, to name just a few. The Democrats see Trump as the “enemy” and constantly claim this is a crisis in democracy because it is not their way alone. We have crossed the Rubicon, and there is now no going back. This shutdown is the confirmation of the decline and fall of the United States, as well as all the rest. I warned at the last WEC in 2024 that the Democratic Party would split, and it is in its collapsing phase. The Optimates faction of Senators who crowned themselves with the title boni  (“the good men”), like a judge who demands to be “honorable” without earning that title, was led by Cato, who was a ruthless power-monger. They were deeply corrupt in their abuse of political norms. They used procedural obstructions, filibusters, and religious technicalities (omens) to block legislation and appointments they disliked, making the normal political process unworkable for anyone outside their clique. When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49 BC, the people cheered, and the cities opened their gates. He did NOT fight his way to Rome. The Senate fled because they had no popular support, any more than our Congress does today. History repeats because human nature never changes.

Leer en Español From currency peg to currency band: Until 2005, China’s renminbi was pegged at CNY 8.3 per USD. From that moment on the government shifted to a managed float, allowing the currency to move within 2% of a daily rate set by China’s central bank, the PBOC. This change led the renminbi to depreciate by around a quarter over the decade that followed—a consequence of China’s massive trade surplus. Afterwards, from the mid-2010s to 2022, the currency further lost value as investors soured on China’s economy and the PBOC reduced its intervention in the FX market. Over the last two years, however, the currency has been broadly stable, largely as the PBOC has itself set a fairly stable exchange rate in order to limit depreciatory pressures. As a result, the renminbi has recently traded more like a currency that’s de facto pegged in a narrow trading band.  Renminbi internationalization still in the early stages: The Chinese government is making an effort to boost the attractiveness of the renminbi overseas. A decade ago the authorities introduced the cross-border international payment system (CIPS) as an alternative to the U.S.-dominated SWIFT system. Beijing has signed renminbi swap lines with dozens of foreign central banks, and pushed to settle more of its own trade in domestic currency. However, the renminbi still accounts for just 2% of international currency usage, compared to over 50% for the U.S. dollar. Restrictions on the exchange rate—which as mentioned have increased in the last couple of years—plus capital controls and concerns over sudden shifts in policymaking are likely to preclude the CNY from unseating the USD as the world reserve currency any time soon.  Our panelists’ forecasts for the exchange rate: The Consensus of the 50+ panelists we poll is for China’s renminbi to gradually appreciate over the coming years, and to move back below CNY 7.0 per USD by the end of the decade; monetary easing by the Federal Reserve will narrow the interest rate gap between the U.S. and China. However, any moves in the exchange rate are likely to be gradual, given the government’s focus on preserving stability above all else.   Insight from our panelists:  On the short-term outlook for the currency, Goldman Sachs analysts said:  “CNY continues to screen as significantly undervalued, with the degree of undervaluation now comparable again to the period of the China shock in the mid-2000s. While there is always substantial uncertainty around FX fair value metrics, recent economic performance—large export market share gains and a surge in the current account surplus—help corroborate these model estimates.”   On the outlook for renminbi internationalization, EIU analysts said:   “China will promote the use of the renminbi as a reliable international currency, at a time when confidence in the US dollar is eroded by Mr Trump’s policies. The outlook for reniminbi internationalisation is mixed, however. China could commit a greater amount of overseas aid and loans, along with other forms of support (including in supply chains), in exchange for the expansion of the renminbi’s role in global settlement and financing, as well as a reserve currency. Nevertheless, despite the growing percentage of the renminbi in trade settlement, the currency continues to make up less than 2% of global trade invoicing—suggesting limited (albeit growing) uptake in international trade. The renminbi will not emerge as a credible substitute to the US dollar in the medium term.” Our latest analysis:  New Zealand’s central bank slashed interest rates in October.  Germany’s industrial production slumped in August.  The post How will China’s currency fare in the coming years?  appeared first on FocusEconomics.

Leer en Español From currency peg to currency band: Until 2005, China’s renminbi was pegged at CNY 8.3 per USD. From that moment on the government shifted to a managed float, allowing the currency to move within 2% of a daily rate set by China’s central bank, the PBOC. This change led the renminbi to depreciate by around a quarter over the decade that followed—a consequence of China’s massive trade surplus. Afterwards, from the mid-2010s to 2022, the currency further lost value as investors soured on China’s economy and the PBOC reduced its intervention in the FX market. Over the last two years, however, the currency has been broadly stable, largely as the PBOC has itself set a fairly stable exchange rate in order to limit depreciatory pressures. As a result, the renminbi has recently traded more like a currency that’s de facto pegged in a narrow trading band.  Renminbi internationalization still in the early stages: The Chinese government is making an effort to boost the attractiveness of the renminbi overseas. A decade ago the authorities introduced the cross-border international payment system (CIPS) as an alternative to the U.S.-dominated SWIFT system. Beijing has signed renminbi swap lines with dozens of foreign central banks, and pushed to settle more of its own trade in domestic currency. However, the renminbi still accounts for just 2% of international currency usage, compared to over 50% for the U.S. dollar. Restrictions on the exchange rate—which as mentioned have increased in the last couple of years—plus capital controls and concerns over sudden shifts in policymaking are likely to preclude the CNY from unseating the USD as the world reserve currency any time soon.  Our panelists’ forecasts for the exchange rate: The Consensus of the 50+ panelists we poll is for China’s renminbi to gradually appreciate over the coming years, and to move back below CNY 7.0 per USD by the end of the decade; monetary easing by the Federal Reserve will narrow the interest rate gap between the U.S. and China. However, any moves in the exchange rate are likely to be gradual, given the government’s focus on preserving stability above all else.   Insight from our panelists:  On the short-term outlook for the currency, Goldman Sachs analysts said:  “CNY continues to screen as significantly undervalued, with the degree of undervaluation now comparable again to the period of the China shock in the mid-2000s. While there is always substantial uncertainty around FX fair value metrics, recent economic performance—large export market share gains and a surge in the current account surplus—help corroborate these model estimates.”   On the outlook for renminbi internationalization, EIU analysts said:   “China will promote the use of the renminbi as a reliable international currency, at a time when confidence in the US dollar is eroded by Mr Trump’s policies. The outlook for reniminbi internationalisation is mixed, however. China could commit a greater amount of overseas aid and loans, along with other forms of support (including in supply chains), in exchange for the expansion of the renminbi’s role in global settlement and financing, as well as a reserve currency. Nevertheless, despite the growing percentage of the renminbi in trade settlement, the currency continues to make up less than 2% of global trade invoicing—suggesting limited (albeit growing) uptake in international trade. The renminbi will not emerge as a credible substitute to the US dollar in the medium term.” Our latest analysis:  New Zealand’s central bank slashed interest rates in October.  Germany’s industrial production slumped in August.  The post How will China’s currency fare in the coming years?  appeared first on FocusEconomics.

QUESTION: You said that Trump is listening to the Neocons in his administration and in DC. Would you please name names? Why did Trump back off on the Tomahawks? GW ANSWER: I believe the Neocons influencing Trump are Rubio, Bessert (Ex-Soros now running Treasury), and Lindsey Graham, among others. I believe all are war mongers, and I believe that they have sold to Trump this idea that the US is all-powerful and can destroy Russia in the blink of an eye. They have convinced a PAWN to wrongly believe it is a QUEEN on the chessboard of geopolitics. I believe it was Rubio who sabotaged the Budapest meeting because they, NATO, and the EU do not want peace.   https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Putin-10-25-Response-Oilk-Sanctions.mp4   I have been dealing with governments for 50 years. They know I have back-channels in every direction. You cannot intimidate Putin into surrendering. If he did, he is either dead by the hand of a Russian Neocon, like JFK was assassinated by our Neocons (CIA), or there will be a third coup as they did to Khruschev after the Cuban Missile Crisis, and then against Gorbachev when the Russian Neocons feared he would accept the offer to join NATO. Putin made it clear that no self-respecting country can back down to such absurd pressure. This is not Colombia or Venezuela. Russia is an equal partner in military power, and this Neocon tactic of always imposing sanctions is asinine and foolish. They cannot point to a single incident in which sanctions have ever worked even once. These neocons have NEVER won a single war. In the words of Trump, for anyone else, they are LOSERS! For the life of me, in Trump’s language, the Neocons are a herd of losers who are the greatest threat to humanity, far more than Putin. For they never repent and can only see as far as the end of their nose. They are incapable of ever changing their mind, and they are certainly incapable of ever learning from their last mistake. Rubio has been a Neocon for as long as I know. PDF Version Free Download Russia Peace Deal-7-F Audio Version   https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Russia-Peace-Deal-6-F.pdf.mp3   Let me explain something so nobody gets their hopes up. Yes, I was called in for a debriefing and I was asked to write a peace proposal. NATO’s Neocon leader Rutte admitted there was no peace proposal on the table. However, I was NOT called in by Trump directly. I did ask whether this was on the side, and I was told no, that President Trump sanctioned it. That does NOT mean they will act on the proposal I spent 4 days drafting. I was shocked that I was even asked – absolutely. They did listen, for they knew my position beforehand.   https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Rutte-Nato-in-WH-Trump-10-25.mp4   Trump can pretend he is not giving weapons to Ukraine but handing them to NATO, whom Trump stated that they can “do with them as they like.”  I had expected more from him than this. That was a grave mistake. These Neocons have ensured that whatever possible dialogue between Putin and Trump has taken a shot in the head. Putin said that this is an “unfriendly act,” and Medvedev said rightly so that this is an “act of war.” Anyone who knows their military history knows that is a true statement and NOT Russia propaganda or threats. Trump can rewrite history and claim this war would never have taken place under him, but that is not true. Trump was the first to give Ukraine lethal weapons on December 24th, 2017. The decision to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine during Donald Trump’s first term was the result of a broad consensus within his administration and pressure from Congress, rather than a single person telling him to do it. The British counterfeited American currency to undermine the US economy, to disrupt its ability to fund the war, precisely what Trump is doing to Russia. Both Hitler and Napoleon also counterfeited British currency to undermine the UK economy, so they too could not fund the war against Germany under Hitler or France under Napoleon.   First of all, Tomahawks are capable of carrying a nuclear bomb. From a Russian perspective, they MUST respond assuming that they are carrying a nuke. Putin gave an interview, and he mentioned the Tomahawks. Putin bluntly stated that if Trump stupidly handed this NATO puppet Zelensky, the response would be “serious if not stunning.” There is no question that if I were Putin, I would be forced to respond with such overwhelming force that Ukraine would be buried in the ashes of geopolitical insanity, only to be discovered by archaeologists a 1,000 years from now. There is no way these Neocons will ever invite Putin to their home for dinner. Just as Trump admitted that Zelensky and Putin hate each other, the same is true with these Neocons. It’s like expecting Iran and Israel to become friends. We are closer to nuclear war today than we were in 1961 with Berlin and 1962 with Cuba. Zelensky is irrational, corrupt, and consumed with hatred. He has no business negotiating anything on behalf of the Ukrainian people when his polls have collapsed to 23%. He should not even be allowed to represent dogs in Ukraine, let alone people. By 1961, both the US and the USSR had large, sophisticated nuclear arsenals and multiple delivery systems (long-range bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles). The Berlin confrontation was not in a distant theater like Korea, but in the heart of Europe, where US and Soviet troops faced each other directly with the only the Berlin Wall separating the two adversaries. The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) is rightly considered the moment the world came closest to nuclear war. The 1961 Berlin Crisis was a direct precursor. Khrushchev was emboldened after seeing what he perceived as Kennedy’s weakness during the 1961 Vienna summit. He then gambled again by placing missiles in Cuba in 1962, partly to pressure the US over Berlin. The

ASIA: The major Asian stock markets had mixed day today: • NIKKEI 225 increased 658.04 points or 1.35% to 49,299.65 • Shanghai increased 27.901 points or 0.71% to 3,950.312 • Hang Seng increased 192.17 points or 0.74% to 26,160.15 • ASX 200 decreased 13.80 points or -0.15% to 9,019.00 • SENSEX decreased 344.52 points or -0.41% to 84,211.88 • Nifty50 decreased 96.25 points or -0.37% to 25,795.15 The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today: • AUDUSD decreased 0.00025 or -0.04% to 0.65096 • NZDUSD decreased 0.00069 or -0.12% to 0.57473 • USDJPY increased 0.249 or 0.16% to 152.810 • USDCNY increased 0.00132 or 0.02% to 7.12633 The above data was collected around 14:09 EST. Precious Metals: • Gold decreased 23.1 USD/t oz. or -0.56% to 4,103.01 • Silver decreased 0.512 USD/t. oz or -1.05% to 48.408 The above data was collected around 14:12 EST. EUROPE/EMEA: The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today: •  CAC 40 decreased 0.15 points or 0.00% to 8,225.63 •  FTSE 100 increased 67.05 points, or 0.70% to 9,645.62 •  DAX 30 increased 32.10 points or 0.13% to 24,239.89 The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today: • EURUSD increased 0.00082 or 0.07% to 1.16265 • GBPUSD decreased 0.00209 or -0.16% to 1.33052 • USDCHF increased 0.0003 or 0.04% to 0.79555 The above data was collected around 14:18 EST. US/AMERICAS: US Market Closings: Dow advanced by 472.51 points (+1.01%) to 47,207.12 S&P 500 advanced by 53.25 points (+0.79%) to 6,791.69 NASDAQ advanced by 263.07 points (+1.15%) to 23,204.87 Russell 2000 advanced by 30.81 points (+1.24%) to 2,513.47 VIX declined by 0.93 points (-5.38%) to 16.37 Canada Market Closings: TSX Composite advanced by 166.79 points (+0.55%) to 30,353.07 TSX 60 advanced by 10.37 points (+0.58%) to 1,789.67 Brazil Market Closing: Bovespa advanced by 357.99 points (+0.25%) to 146,078.97 ENERGY: The oil markets had a mixed day today: • Crude Oil decreased 0.224 USD/BBL or -0.36% to 61.566 • Brent increased 0.017 USD/BBL or 0.03% to 66.007 • Natural gas decreased 0.0346 USD/MMBtu or -1.03% to 3.3094 • Gasoline increased 0.0006 USD/GAL or 0.03% to 1.9274 • Heating oil increased 0.0068 USD/GAL or 0.28% to 2.4098 The above data was collected around 14:24 EST. •   Top commodity gainers: Lithium (0.80%), Rubber (0.52%), Copper (0.51%), and Bitumen (0.57%) •   Top commodity losers: Orange Juice (-2.94%), Coffee (-2.41%), Feeder Cattle (-2.81%), and Live Cattle (-2.42%) The above data was collected around 14:31 EST. BONDS: Japan 1.6590%(-0.19bp), US 2’s 3.49% (-0.010%), US 10’s 3.9980%(-0.7bps); US 30’s 4.59% (+0.011%), Bunds 2.6242% (+4.63bp), France 3.4340% (+5.44bp), Italy 3.4150% (+3.99bp), Turkey 29.82% (+5bp), Greece 3.30% (+5.7bp), Portugal 3.008% (+3.8bp), Spain 3.158% (+4.1bp) and UK Gilts 4.435% (+0.03bp). The above data was collected around 14:34 EST.

Leer en Español From currency peg to currency band: Until 2005, China’s renminbi was pegged at CNY 8.3 per USD. From that moment on the government shifted to a managed float, allowing the currency to move within 2% of a daily rate set by China’s central bank, the PBOC. This change led the renminbi to depreciate by around a quarter over the decade that followed—a consequence of China’s massive trade surplus. Afterwards, from the mid-2010s to 2022, the currency further lost value as investors soured on China’s economy and the PBOC reduced its intervention in the FX market. Over the last two years, however, the currency has been broadly stable, largely as the PBOC has itself set a fairly stable exchange rate in order to limit depreciatory pressures. As a result, the renminbi has recently traded more like a currency that’s de facto pegged in a narrow trading band.  Renminbi internationalization still in the early stages: The Chinese government is making an effort to boost the attractiveness of the renminbi overseas. A decade ago the authorities introduced the cross-border international payment system (CIPS) as an alternative to the U.S.-dominated SWIFT system. Beijing has signed renminbi swap lines with dozens of foreign central banks, and pushed to settle more of its own trade in domestic currency. However, the renminbi still accounts for just 2% of international currency usage, compared to over 50% for the U.S. dollar. Restrictions on the exchange rate—which as mentioned have increased in the last couple of years—plus capital controls and concerns over sudden shifts in policymaking are likely to preclude the CNY from unseating the USD as the world reserve currency any time soon.  Our panelists’ forecasts for the exchange rate: The Consensus of the 50+ panelists we poll is for China’s renminbi to gradually appreciate over the coming years, and to move back below CNY 7.0 per USD by the end of the decade; monetary easing by the Federal Reserve will narrow the interest rate gap between the U.S. and China. However, any moves in the exchange rate are likely to be gradual, given the government’s focus on preserving stability above all else.   Insight from our panelists:  On the short-term outlook for the currency, Goldman Sachs analysts said:  “CNY continues to screen as significantly undervalued, with the degree of undervaluation now comparable again to the period of the China shock in the mid-2000s. While there is always substantial uncertainty around FX fair value metrics, recent economic performance—large export market share gains and a surge in the current account surplus—help corroborate these model estimates.”   On the outlook for renminbi internationalization, EIU analysts said:   “China will promote the use of the renminbi as a reliable international currency, at a time when confidence in the US dollar is eroded by Mr Trump’s policies. The outlook for reniminbi internationalisation is mixed, however. China could commit a greater amount of overseas aid and loans, along with other forms of support (including in supply chains), in exchange for the expansion of the renminbi’s role in global settlement and financing, as well as a reserve currency. Nevertheless, despite the growing percentage of the renminbi in trade settlement, the currency continues to make up less than 2% of global trade invoicing—suggesting limited (albeit growing) uptake in international trade. The renminbi will not emerge as a credible substitute to the US dollar in the medium term.” Our latest analysis:  New Zealand’s central bank slashed interest rates in October.  Germany’s industrial production slumped in August.  The post How will China’s currency fare in the coming years?  appeared first on FocusEconomics.

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies determined that the definition of a civil war is a conflict in which at least 1,000 people are killed. The institution likened the definition to the 1791 Whiskey Rebellion that broke out due to excessive taxation, and believes the US is on the brink of another civil war. The first wave of the ECM following the 1776 revolution bottomed in 1784, the postwar adjustment phase, when the economy stabilized after independence. From there, the cycle advanced toward the 1792 peak, marking the first wave of rising confidence in the new system. That peak corresponded with Alexander Hamilton’s fiscal consolidation, the creation of the Bank of the United States, and of course, the excise tax on whiskey. By 1794, as the ECM turned down into the 1798.6 low, we witnessed the collapse in localized confidence manifest as rebellion. Washington ordered federal troops to restore order, which many are juxtaposing to the current administration’s use of the National Guard in cities across America. The current private wave began in 1985.65, and confidence in the system has continually decreased since then. The last public wave in 1934.4 began in the throes of World War II recovery, with the nation believing in a better tomorrow after securing victory over the Axis powers. By the end of that wave, we saw the rise of the welfare state, Bretton Woods, and the failure of Keynesian policy. The current private wave will last until 2037.25, but will peak in 2032.95. Capital has fled into private assets such as real estate, equities, and crypto. No one is buying government debt. There are macro and micro problems looming. Within the states, there is an extreme division between two polar opposites points of view. We are currently amid the second-longest government shutdown in US history because neither side can agree on how to spend federal funds. One side envisions a Marxist utopia, while the other extreme sees technocratic control over consumerism. The division cannot be repaired. The cycle can never be controlled or altered, although countless men have tried and failed over the course of history. The United States is due for another massive civil war, but this time, it will be far larger than a mere revolution over taxes. Governments across the world will experience an uprising that causes their demise post-2032, and a new system will emerge. This is not my opinion – it’s just time.