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Adding Context to Trump’s Misleading Claims About Crime in Chicago

The Labor Day holiday became a violent weekend in the city of Chicago, as more than 50 people were shot and nine were killed from Aug. 29 to Sept. 2. Despite those grim statistics, President Donald Trump was wrong when he said on Truth Social on Sept. 2, “CHICAGO IS THE MURDER CAPITAL OF THE WORLD!” That’s not the case, experts told us, and Chicago’s overall homicide rate declined more than 30% in the first six months of this year as compared with last year. But Chicago has topped the list of large U.S. cities for its number of murders for over a decade. After the burst of violence over the weekend, Trump was asked at a Sept. 2 press conference whether he planned to send the National Guard or other federal law enforcement purportedly to quell crime in Chicago, as he did in Washington, D.C. Trump replied, “Well, we’re going in — I didn’t say when. We’re going in.” Photo by be free / stock.adobe.com Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, joined by Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson at a news conference the same day, said, “There is no emergency that warrants deployment of troops” in the city. Pritzker said the state would challenge Trump’s power to send troops to Chicago in court. (On Sept. 3, Trump seemed to backpedal on sending the National Guard to Chicago, telling reporters, “So we’re making a determination now. Do we go to Chicago or do we go to a place like New Orleans where we have a great governor, Jeff Landry, who wants us to come in and straighten out a very nice section of this country that’s become quite, you know, quite tough, quite bad?”) Here, we’ll address some of the inaccurate or misleading claims by Trump and the White House regarding the trends in violent crime in Chicago. Highest Homicide Rates in the World In his Truth Social posts on Sept. 2, Trump said, “Chicago is the worst and most dangerous city in the World, by far,” and later wrongly claimed, “CHICAGO IS THE MURDER CAPITAL OF THE WORLD!” Jeff Asher, co-founder of the consulting firm AH Datalytics, which compiles an aggregation of crime data provided by law enforcement agencies across the U.S., previously told us about Trump’s comparison of crimes in Washington, D.C., to other cities around the world, “It’s generally inadvisable to compare crime rates between cities, especially international cities with populations many times that of DC.” In a Sept. 2 email, Asher said, “No, Chicago is not the murder capital of the world, there are many cities with higher murder counts and rates globally.” Experts at the Council on Criminal Justice, an independent think tank which focuses on U.S. cities, directed us to a study of “the world’s most homicidal cities in 2023” by the Igarapé Institute, an independent Brazilian think tank. That study listed cities of 250,000 inhabitants or more by highest homicide rates — the number of homicides per 100,000 people. Chicago was not among its ranking of the 50 cities in the world with the highest homicide rates. The Igarapé Institute’s top 50 list did include U.S. cities (by highest ranking): Memphis (number 21 in world ranking); New Orleans (25); St. Louis (30); Baltimore (36); Cleveland (37); Detroit (48); and Washington, D.C. (50). The top 10 international cities are in Ecuador, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico. Most Murders But Not Highest Rate A week before Trump’s Truth Social claims about Chicago, the White House posted a press release that said, “For 13 consecutive years, Chicago has had the most murders of any U.S. city.” The release cited an article in the conservative Center Square about the number of murders in Chicago in 2024. The press release also said, “For seven consecutive years, Chicago has had the highest murder rate among U.S. cities with more than one million people.” Asher told us, “The White House is correct that Chicago has recorded the most murders in the US for 13 straight years and has had the nation’s [homicide] highest rate for any city of 1 million or more, but that’s an arbitrarily tight comparison group to make in my opinion (usually comparisons are made amongst cities of 250,000 or more).” According to our analysis of FBI crime data, Chicago had the highest murder rate among the nine cities with a population over 1 million in 2024. But it ranked 10th among 37 cities with  population over 500,000. And it ranked 15th among 87 cities with a population over 250,000. Chicago had a population of more than 2.7 million in 2024. Ernesto Lopez, senior research specialist at the Council on Criminal Justice, also said that the White House statement about Chicago’s number of homicides is accurate. “Chicago does have the highest number of homicides in our sample of 30 U.S. cities,” he told us via email. “Relying on homicide counts at the city level is misleading, however, because generally cities with more people have a higher number of homicides. Chicago does not have the highest rate of homicides. … Other major U.S. cities, such as St. Louis, Memphis, Detroit, Baltimore, and Washington, DC, have higher homicide rates.” (Emphasis is his.) According to CCJ data going back to 2018, Lopez said, “Chicago does have the highest number of homicides. But again, using the number of homicides as a comparison across cities is not an advisable way to examine homicide trends. Chicago does not consistently have the highest homicide rate among cities with more than 1 million people.” Citing the CCJ criminal offense dashboard, Lopez said, “In our sample, we have homicide data for five cities with more than 1 million people — Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and San Antonio.” That data shows Philadelphia had a higher homicide rate than Chicago in the first six months of 2019, 2024 and 2025. Examining Chicago Crime Data Responding to an anticipated deployment of the National Guard to Chicago, the mayor told CNN on Aug. 25, “I don’t know of any cities in America that are calling for federal troops to occupy their cities. … Homicides are down nearly 32%

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RFK Jr. Defends Ouster of CDC Director by Distorting List of Public Health Achievements

Amid upheaval at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, including the firing of the agency’s director, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. distorted the facts to falsely claim that the agency’s website lists abortion as one of the “10 greatest advances in medical science.” Kennedy’s comments came in an Aug. 28 interview on “Fox & Friends,” the day after HHS announced on X that Susan Monarez, who had served as CDC director for less than a month after being nominated by President Donald Trump and confirmed by the Senate, was no longer head of the agency. Monarez, who reportedly clashed with Kennedy over vaccine policy, has disputed the legality of her firing. Her lawyers said in a statement posted on X that she was targeted after she “refused to rubber-stamp unscientific, reckless directives and fire dedicated health experts.” The same day, the Food and Drug Administration approved updated COVID-19 shots for the 2025-2026 season, but only for certain people based on age or health condition, contrary to the advice of other major medical groups. Four high-level CDC staffers also resigned. While declining to speak about Monarez specifically, Kennedy said in the Fox News interview that the “CDC has problems,” citing what he viewed as deficiencies in the agency’s response during the COVID-19 pandemic. As another example of the CDC’s “problems,” Kennedy, who has repeatedly claimed not to be anti-vaccine despite decades of such advocacy work, proceeded to point to an agency website that he said listed abortion, water fluoridation and vaccination as major medical advances. “Today, on the CDC’s website right now, they list the 10 top advances — the 10 greatest advances in medical science. And one of them is abortion,” he said. “Another is fluoridation, another is vaccines. So we need to look at the priorities of the agency, if there is really a deeply, deeply embedded — I would say, malaise — at the agency.” “The agency is in trouble and we need to fix it,” he added. “And it may be that some people should not be working there anymore.” Later in the day, at the end of a press conference in Texas, Kennedy repeated the claim. “The CDC has on its website — today — that among the top 10 medical innovations, greatest medical accomplishments in history, abortion. One of the greatest medical accomplishments because it keeps small families. Go to the website, look at fluoridation — giving kids a toxin — and vaccines.” We could find no CDC webpage listing the greatest medical innovations. There are a few older reports published in the agency’s journal, the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, that list the top 10 public health achievements. But while vaccination and water fluoridation are indeed included, abortion is not a main entry in any of them. Nor are the lists featured on the CDC’s website in a consumer-friendly way. The pages are web versions of published journal articles that are primarily intended for medical or scientific audiences. Susan Monarez takes part in a Senate hearing on her nomination to head the CDC in June. Photo by Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images. HHS did not respond to our inquiry asking which list Kennedy was citing, but it’s likely that Kennedy is referring to an April 1999 MMWR that lists the 10 greatest public health achievements in the U.S. during the 20th century. (Two similar MMWR lists cover achievements in the first decade of the 21st century and include vaccination but do not ever refer to abortion.) In subsequent MMWR articles in 1999, which explain the rationale for each of the choices on the 20th century list, two of the entries, “Healthier mothers and babies” and “Family Planning,” include brief mentions of abortion. But abortion itself is not the major “achievement.” Rather, the October 1999 “Healthier mothers and babies” MMWR is about reductions in maternal and infant mortality, which are attributed to “[e]nvironmental interventions, improvements in nutrition, advances in clinical medicine, improvements in access to health care, improvements in surveillance and monitoring of disease, increases in education levels, and improvements in standards of living.”  Abortion is mentioned with regard to maternal mortality and sepsis, a potentially lethal immune response to an infection. Noting that maternal mortality was highest in the last century during the first three decades of the 1900s, the MMWR explains that poor obstetric practices were responsible for many preventable maternal deaths.   “Deliveries, including some surgical interventions, were performed without following the principles of asepsis,” the article reads. “As a result, 40% of maternal deaths were caused by sepsis (half following delivery and half associated with illegally induced abortion).” The MMWR goes on to explain that increased attention to the issue of maternal mortality starting in the 1930s led to maternal mortality review committees as well as new practice guidelines. In addition, more people began delivering in hospitals using aseptic techniques and with access to medical advances such as antibiotics and safer blood transfusions. At the end of the paragraph, abortion is mentioned once to note that legalization of the practice “beginning in the 1960s contributed to an 89% decline in deaths from septic illegal abortions” between 1950 and 1973. Legalization of abortion, therefore, contributed to some of the maternal mortality declines, according to the MMWR, but it was one of many factors — and did not mean abortions were not occurring previously. The “Family planning” MMWR from December 1999 is focused on modern contraceptives, not abortion. Describing family planning as it developed over the 20th century as “the ability to achieve desired birth spacing and family size,” the article notes that “couples chose to have fewer children” and that “[s]maller families and longer birth intervals have contributed to the better health of infants, children, and women.” Abortion is mentioned primarily in contrast to modern birth control, since contraceptives can prevent unintended pregnancies. The article is clear that the main goal is to reduce such pregnancies, which in turn would reduce abortions.  Under a section titled “Challenges,” the article states that unintended pregnancy in the U.S. “remains a problem;

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D.C. Homicide-Free Streak Not First in ‘Years’

While signing executive orders at the White House on Aug. 25, President Donald Trump wrongly said that an 11-day span of no homicides in Washington, D.C., was the “first time that’s taken place in years,” a claim reiterated by other members of the administration who credited Trump’s federal takeover of the district’s law enforcement. An 11-day stretch with zero murders is rare in the city, but there was a 16-day period with no murders earlier this year, from Feb. 25 to March 12, according to Metropolitan Police Department data. The Metropolitan Police Department investigates a double shooting of two males who were transported to the hospital on Aug. 18 in Washington, D.C. Photo by Andrew Leyden/Getty Images. “In the last 11 days, we’ve had no murders and that’s the first time that’s taken place in years, actually years. We always have a murderer a week. They call it a murder a week,” Trump said as he prepared to sign executive orders aimed at ending no-cash-bail policies in Washington and other jurisdictions. He repeated it later: “So for 11 days there have been no murders. The record goes back years where that’s happened. They haven’t seen that happen in years.” So far in 2025, there have been 103 homicides in Washington, an average of about three per week. In all of 2024, there were 187, down from 274 in 2023. As we’ve reported before, the city’s murder rate in 2023 — 39 per 100,000 population — was the highest in 20 years, but it was half the peak murder rate in 1991. And the rate has been declining since 2023. Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff for policy, repeated the claim at the same event, saying: “We’ve checked the records. No one can even find a record of being murder free for as long as we’ve been murder free under President Trump’s leadership.” Vice President JD Vance credited the president “and the team” with saving “six or seven lives.” There were no reported homicides in the city on Aug. 25, bringing the no-homicide streak to 12 days, dating back to Aug. 14. That information is available through the Metropolitan Police Department’s “crime cards” website, which provides preliminary crime data based on when crimes are reported to police. An early-morning homicide on Aug. 26, as reported by local news, ended the streak. Trump had announced a federal takeover of the city’s police force on Aug. 11, along with the deployment of National Guard troops and a surge of federal law enforcement officers in the city to combat what he called a “crime emergency” in the district. (As we wrote at the time, there was an increase in crime in Washington in 2023, but the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia reported in January that violent crime overall for 2024 was down 35% from the previous year and was “the lowest it has been in over 30 years.” The administration has accused the police department of reporting “phony crime stats” and is investigating the matter, as we’ve also explained.) There were two reported homicides on Aug. 11 and one more reported on Aug. 13, but the 12-day period with zero homicides began the following day. As we said, such 12-day periods aren’t common in the city, but it hasn’t been “the first time that’s taken place in years,” as Trump said. It’s been about six months, when the city went 16 days without a homicide in late February and early March. In 2024, the longest period without a homicide that we could find was 11 days, from Jan. 5 to Jan. 15. We asked the White House whether the president was using a different crime dataset to make his claim. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers responded: “Here are the facts: Violent crime has been plaguing the streets of Washington, DC for years – in just two weeks, President Trump’s bold action has stopped the senseless killings, removed over one thousand violent criminals from the streets, and overall crime has decreased.” The MPD crime cards website does show a drop in violent and property crimes from Aug. 11, the date of Trump’s announced law enforcement takeover, to Aug. 26, compared with the same time period last year, or even a similar time period just prior to Aug. 11, with most of the violent crime reductions in robberies. But Jeff Asher, a co-founder of AH Datalytics, a data consulting firm that produces an aggregation of crime data, cautioned that it was too early to analyze very recent crime data and to try to tease out whether the federal government’s actions have had an impact. The crime data is “very preliminary,” and it could take weeks or up to two months for all the reporting to occur, he told us. There is some “underreporting of data,” he said, “when using a raw dataset like this.” The crime trends in the city were also “already going down,” so measuring two points on a downward slope will show a decline. According to the preliminary data, there were 32 fewer violent crimes reported from Aug. 11 to Aug. 26, compared with the prior 16-day period, a drop of 28%. The decline was 48% compared with the same time period in 2024. But as Asher noted, violent crime in the city had dropped 34% for the two weeks ending June 29, compared with the two weeks prior, and was 51% lower than the same period in 2024. “No intervention or anything, just randomness disguised as meaning,” he said.  That doesn’t mean the federal intervention in Washington hasn’t or won’t have an impact, but more time is needed to determine that, Asher said. “It’s challenging to see the effect of an intervention even months down the line. Doing it while it’s occurring … is not strongly advised.” Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give

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Assessing Redistricting Claims from Texas, New York Governors

In the battle over Texas’ redistricting plan to pick up Republican House seats, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott have made competing claims. Hochul, a Democrat, said at an Aug. 4 briefing, “Congressional districts are never redrawn mid-decade as they are, but here they are, flagrantly breaking the rules so they can hold on to power.” Districts have been redrawn mid-decade many times, but that’s usually due to legal challenges — making Texas’ mid-decade redistricting without court action rare.  Abbott, a Republican, said in an Aug. 5 appearance on Fox News, “There are no states more gerrymandered than California and Illinois and New York. … I don’t think those states can gerrymander any more than they have.” Illinois is among the most skewed states for partisan congressional maps, but California and New York get favorable marks in analyses from nonpartisan organizations. A person views a map during a Texas Senate Special Committee on Congressional Redistricting hearing on Aug. 7. Photo by Brandon Bell via Getty Images. The fracas began because, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, President Donald Trump has said he wants Texas state lawmakers to redraw congressional district lines to pick up Republican House seats. The move could touch off a redistricting arms race since some Democratic governors have threatened to counter with redistricting in their states if Texas Republicans move forward with their plan. Trump referred to the plan as “a very simple redrawing,” when reporters asked him about it on July 15. “We [Republicans] pick up five seats. But we have a couple of other states where we’ll pick up seats also,” he said. We asked the White House for more details about the plan, including which other states may be involved, but we didn’t get a response. Texas Republicans announced a redistricting proposal in July, and Democratic state representatives grabbed headlines when they left the state on Aug. 3 in order to block a vote on the proposed map. Two weeks later, those lawmakers said that they would return to Texas if California releases a redrawn congressional map of its own. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is planning to hold a special election on Nov. 4 to get voter approval for a redrawn map that could give Democrats five additional seats in the House. But if Texas or other states abandon redistricting plans, California’s map would stay as is under Newsom’s proposal. Hochul has also pledged to help Democrats pick up seats, but state laws in New York would likely bar any changes before the midterms. The governor has said that New York should disband its independent redistricting commission, which could allow Democrats to draw more favorable maps. We’ll explain how redistricting has been done and differences among the states as we assess Hochul’s and Abbott’s claims. When Are District Lines Drawn? Congressional districts are usually drawn at the start of the decade, but Hochul is wrong to say that lines are “never” redrawn later. Typically, lines are redrawn every 10 years, following the census. The process is meant to result in fair representation based on population. “Our modern congressional redistricting system was effectively set up in the early 1960s in a series of Supreme Court decisions that enforced a ‘one person, one vote’ standard on congressional districts,” Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told us in an email, referring to a trio of cases in 1962 and 1964. “This specified that congressional (and state legislative) districts had to essentially have equal population within states,” Kondik said. “Previously, states had allowed huge disparities in district populations, which led to rural areas being overrepresented and urban/suburban areas being underrepresented.” Since 1970, states have gotten into a more regular habit of redrawing districts every 10 years to account for changes uncovered by the census, he said. “However, starting in the 1964 congressional election cycle and going through 2024, at least one congressional district’s lines were changed in 24 of the 31 two-year election cycles since then. This cycle will make it 25 of 32, assuming a map officially changes,” Kondik said. “So, mid-decade redistricting is common. Now what is uncommon about Texas (and states that may follow) is that mid-decade redistrictings almost always include some sort of court action.” Sam Wang, director of Princeton’s Gerrymandering Project and president of the Electoral Innovation Lab, told us the same thing. “In recent decades, the only times that mid-decade redistricting has occurred are (a) when a court or the law requires it (PA, NY, MD, NC, OH…), or (b) when it’s Texas – they did it in 2003,” Wang said in an email. Following the decennial redistricting process, civil rights and good government organizations often file lawsuits challenging the new maps — usually alleging gerrymandering or race discrimination. The Brennan Center for Justice, which tracks these cases, says that the courts “play an important role” in determining where the lines will eventually fall. According to a 2021 paper that collected about 60 years’ worth of data, there had been more than 900 challenges to various redistricting plans — for local governments, school boards, statewide offices and congressional districts — in federal courts. A Brennan Center analysis of challenges brought following this decade’s redistricting found 90 cases, “split roughly evenly between state and federal court, a change from last decade when the overwhelming bulk of challenges to maps were in federal court.” “What Texas is doing is different than the norm in that there’s no court action,” Kondik said. It’s not completely unprecedented, though. As both Wang and Kondik pointed out, in 2003, Texas redrew its congressional map, replacing the one that had been adopted following the 2000 census. That redistricting led to a lawsuit that was eventually decided in 2006 by the U.S. Supreme Court, which found that part of the map violated the Voting Rights Act but did not find that the state was prohibited from redrawing its electoral maps at will. Redistricting is largely handled by the states, and there is no federal prohibition on

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Assessing Redistricting Claims from Texas, New York Governors

In the battle over Texas’ redistricting plan to pick up Republican House seats, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott have made competing claims. Hochul, a Democrat, said at an Aug. 4 briefing, “Congressional districts are never redrawn mid-decade as they are, but here they are, flagrantly breaking the rules so they can hold on to power.” Districts have been redrawn mid-decade many times, but that’s usually due to legal challenges — making Texas’ mid-decade redistricting without court action rare.  Abbott, a Republican, said in an Aug. 5 appearance on Fox News, “There are no states more gerrymandered than California and Illinois and New York. … I don’t think those states can gerrymander any more than they have.” Illinois is among the most skewed states for partisan congressional maps, but California and New York get favorable marks in analyses from nonpartisan organizations. A person views a map during a Texas Senate Special Committee on Congressional Redistricting hearing on Aug. 7. Photo by Brandon Bell via Getty Images. The fracas began because, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, President Donald Trump has said he wants Texas state lawmakers to redraw congressional district lines to pick up Republican House seats. The move could touch off a redistricting arms race since some Democratic governors have threatened to counter with redistricting in their states if Texas Republicans move forward with their plan. Trump referred to the plan as “a very simple redrawing,” when reporters asked him about it on July 15. “We [Republicans] pick up five seats. But we have a couple of other states where we’ll pick up seats also,” he said. We asked the White House for more details about the plan, including which other states may be involved, but we didn’t get a response. Texas Republicans announced a redistricting proposal in July, and Democratic state representatives grabbed headlines when they left the state on Aug. 3 in order to block a vote on the proposed map. Two weeks later, those lawmakers said that they would return to Texas if California releases a redrawn congressional map of its own. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is planning to hold a special election on Nov. 4 to get voter approval for a redrawn map that could give Democrats five additional seats in the House. But if Texas or other states abandon redistricting plans, California’s map would stay as is under Newsom’s proposal. Hochul has also pledged to help Democrats pick up seats, but state laws in New York would likely bar any changes before the midterms. The governor has said that New York should disband its independent redistricting commission, which could allow Democrats to draw more favorable maps. We’ll explain how redistricting has been done and differences among the states as we assess Hochul’s and Abbott’s claims. When Are District Lines Drawn? Congressional districts are usually drawn at the start of the decade, but Hochul is wrong to say that lines are “never” redrawn later. Typically, lines are redrawn every 10 years, following the census. The process is meant to result in fair representation based on population. “Our modern congressional redistricting system was effectively set up in the early 1960s in a series of Supreme Court decisions that enforced a ‘one person, one vote’ standard on congressional districts,” Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told us in an email, referring to a trio of cases in 1962 and 1964. “This specified that congressional (and state legislative) districts had to essentially have equal population within states,” Kondik said. “Previously, states had allowed huge disparities in district populations, which led to rural areas being overrepresented and urban/suburban areas being underrepresented.” Since 1970, states have gotten into a more regular habit of redrawing districts every 10 years to account for changes uncovered by the census, he said. “However, starting in the 1964 congressional election cycle and going through 2024, at least one congressional district’s lines were changed in 24 of the 31 two-year election cycles since then. This cycle will make it 25 of 32, assuming a map officially changes,” Kondik said. “So, mid-decade redistricting is common. Now what is uncommon about Texas (and states that may follow) is that mid-decade redistrictings almost always include some sort of court action.” Sam Wang, director of Princeton’s Gerrymandering Project and president of the Electoral Innovation Lab, told us the same thing. “In recent decades, the only times that mid-decade redistricting has occurred are (a) when a court or the law requires it (PA, NY, MD, NC, OH…), or (b) when it’s Texas – they did it in 2003,” Wang said in an email. Following the decennial redistricting process, civil rights and good government organizations often file lawsuits challenging the new maps — usually alleging gerrymandering or race discrimination. The Brennan Center for Justice, which tracks these cases, says that the courts “play an important role” in determining where the lines will eventually fall. According to a 2021 paper that collected about 60 years’ worth of data, there had been more than 900 challenges to various redistricting plans — for local governments, school boards, statewide offices and congressional districts — in federal courts. A Brennan Center analysis of challenges brought following this decade’s redistricting found 90 cases, “split roughly evenly between state and federal court, a change from last decade when the overwhelming bulk of challenges to maps were in federal court.” “What Texas is doing is different than the norm in that there’s no court action,” Kondik said. It’s not completely unprecedented, though. As both Wang and Kondik pointed out, in 2003, Texas redrew its congressional map, replacing the one that had been adopted following the 2000 census. That redistricting led to a lawsuit that was eventually decided in 2006 by the U.S. Supreme Court, which found that part of the map violated the Voting Rights Act but did not find that the state was prohibited from redrawing its electoral maps at will. Redistricting is largely handled by the states, and there is no federal prohibition on

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RFK Jr. Justifies Cuts to mRNA Vaccine Projects With Falsehoods

In justifying the government’s termination of $500 million in funding for mRNA vaccine projects, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. falsely claimed mRNA vaccines “fail to protect effectively” against COVID-19 and suggested they are unsafe. The mRNA shots saved millions of lives during the COVID-19 pandemic and have shown promise against influenza. The projects had been funded by HHS’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, which is tasked with preparing the U.S. for public health emergencies such as pandemics. HHS announced that BARDA also would not be funding any new vaccine projects that use mRNA technology. “We reviewed the science, listened to the experts, and acted. BARDA is terminating 22 mRNA vaccine development investments because the data show these vaccines fail to protect effectively against upper respiratory infections like COVID and flu,” Kennedy said in an Aug. 5 press release. “We’re shifting that funding toward safer, broader vaccine platforms that remain effective even as viruses mutate.” It is unclear which studies or experts Kennedy is citing, but his claims are contradicted by the peer-reviewed scientific literature and are counter to many experts. The mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have been used widely around the world, and studies have repeatedly demonstrated their effectiveness and safety. Moreover, the mRNA vaccines, which can easily be updated to target new virus variants, have continued to provide protection even as the virus mutates. Kennedy’s claim about the ineffectiveness of mRNA vaccines is “simply not true,” Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told us. “We have ample data showing major reductions in serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths even after the virus variants have changed some,” he said. Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told us the HHS announcement is “an exercise in disinformation.” Contrary to Kennedy’s claims, the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines “perform extremely well,” Hotez said, referring to the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. Influenza vaccines using mRNA technology also are in development and have shown promise both against seasonal flu and viruses that could cause a pandemic. BARDA had in May canceled $766 million in funding to Moderna for development of mRNA vaccines against bird flu. Kennedy suggested BARDA would instead invest in “safer” technologies, but mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 have been tested extensively, and serious side effects are very rare. Experts warned that the decision could leave the U.S. without a way to get an adequate supply of vaccines quickly in the event of a pandemic. A major strength of mRNA vaccines is the speed with which they can be produced. “In my 50 years in public health and dealing with a number of very challenging public health problems, I’ve never seen a more misguided and even dangerous decision,” Osterholm said. Dr. Drew Weissman, director of the Institute for RNA Innovation at the University of Pennsylvania, told us in a phone interview that this decision by HHS was “crippling our science for decades to come.” Weissman and Katalin Karikó won the 2023 Nobel Prize in medicine for their discoveries in 2005 that facilitated the development of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. While HHS’ decision applies to vaccines for respiratory viruses, Weissman sees a larger impact. The technology “has enormous potential,” he said, explaining that government funding is what most researchers use to begin their work — and now the Trump administration is “killing the technology in the United States.” The rest of the world will “very soon, pull way ahead of us” in developing mRNA therapeutics. “We’re going to lose all of our young scientists who are going to go overseas to do this work.” When asked about Kennedy’s decision on Aug. 6, President Donald Trump touted Operation Warp Speed, the federal government’s effort — launched by Trump’s first administration — to support the development of COVID-19 vaccines and quickly deliver them to the public. It was “considered one of the most incredible things ever done in this country,” he said. But, he added, “that was now a long time ago and we’re on to other things, but we are speaking about it,” saying he had a meeting the following day about the issue. We reached out to HHS with various questions, including asking for support for Kennedy’s scientific claims and for more detail on the vaccine platforms HHS will now invest in, but we did not receive a response. Data Demonstrate mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness There have been many studies showing that the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective in preventing symptomatic disease, particularly in preventing severe disease – even as new variants of the virus have emerged. “The goal is to keep you out of the hospital, keep you out of the intensive care unit and keep you out of the morgue, and this vaccine performs very well in that regard,” Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told us. One study, led by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health, estimated that COVID-19 vaccines prevented more than 3 million deaths in the U.S. in the first two years alone. The vast majority of Americans received mRNA vaccines. The clinical trials for both the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccines showed that two doses were more than 90% effective in preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19. Protection against infection and mild disease waned over time and with the emergence of new variants, but many studies continued to show the vaccines, which have been updated every year to better target new variants, worked well in preventing severe disease and death. One Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study, published in March 2022, found a 90% risk reduction for invasive mechanical ventilation or death due to COVID-19 for people who received two or three mRNA doses, compared with those who had not gotten any doses. As time has passed, more people in the population have built immunity to COVID-19 through some

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Trump Exaggerates Trade Deficit with Switzerland by Ignoring Surplus in Services

Este artículo estará disponible en español en El Tiempo Latino. President Donald Trump has cited a $40 billion trade deficit with Switzerland to justify a new, high tariff on imported Swiss goods. But his figure ignores trade in services. The overall goods-and-services deficit is less than $9 billion.  After months of warnings and negotiations, Trump signed an executive order on July 31 setting tariff rates on U.S. trading partners who didn’t “sufficiently address imbalances in our trading relationship.” Among the nations hit with the highest tariff rates is Switzerland, with a 39% rate. “The problem with Switzerland,” Trump told reporters the next day, is “we have a $40 billion deficit with Switzerland. … That’s a big deficit.” He repeated the claim in an Aug. 5 interview on CNBC, increasing the purported deficit with Switzerland to $41 billion. Recounting his phone call with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter, Trump said he told her, “We have a $41 billion deficit with you, madam. … And you want to pay 1% tariffs. … We lose because I view deficit as loss.” Trump does not account for the U.S. surplus in trade services with Switzerland in his calculation, only the deficit in trade goods. It’s an omission he makes in other claims about trade imbalances with other countries. He also mischaracterizes a trade deficit as a loss for American consumers, experts told us. Trump’s claim of a $40 billion trade deficit with Switzerland “is not accurate,” Ryan Young, a senior economist with the Competitive Enterprise Institute, an organization opposed to government over-regulation, told us in an email. Young cited data from the Office of the United States Trade Representative, which show that the U.S. goods trade deficit with Switzerland in 2024 was $38.3 billion, a 56% increase over the previous year. The U.S. services trade surplus with Switzerland was $29.7 billion in 2024, a 31% increase over 2023. Swiss-made Rolex watches. Photo by malajscy / stock.adobe.com. “This means America’s total goods and services deficit with Switzerland is about $8.6 billion,” Young said. It is also “inaccurate to say that we lose $40 billion a year with Switzerland … because people get something in return for their money,” Young said. The trade deficit with Switzerland “is in line with the broader multilateral pattern: the United States runs a goods trade deficit and a services trade surplus,” Jonathan Dingel, an associate professor of economics at Columbia University, said via email. “Running a bilateral trade deficit with Switzerland simply means that United States buyers imported more from Swiss sellers than Swiss buyers imported from US sellers. There is no sense in which a bilateral trade imbalance constitutes a win or a loss,” Dingel said. Gene M. Grossman, a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University, agreed. “Trump views trade as a zero sum game where everything you buy is a loss. But of course, that’s nonsense,” Grossman said in an email. The top Swiss imports to the U.S. include pharmaceutical products, gold and other precious metals and stones, watches and clocks, optical and medical equipment, organic chemicals, precision machinery, and, to a lesser degree, Swiss chocolates. Gold, Switzerland’s top export to the U.S., is exempt from the tariffs, and pharmaceuticals, the second largest Swiss export to the U.S., are temporarily excluded, the New York Times reported. “In the short run, consumers will see higher prices for many Swiss goods. These include chocolate, dairy products, and watches,” Young said. “Medical supplies, another significant Swiss product, will be hit, which could affect some treatment costs and related co-pays and insurance premiums.” “In the medium run, Switzerland exports a lot of chemicals and manufacturing equipment to the US. This doesn’t go directly to consumers, but increased costs do reach consumers eventually,” Young also said. “Tariffs are a tax, and Americans will pay them, one way or another. Some of the cost is at the checkout aisle, and some of it is more subtle and more downstream. But people still pay.” On April 2, when Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs for other countries, he shared a misleading chart that showed a 31% tariff to be imposed on Switzerland. As we wrote in April, USTR said that while computing trade deficit effects for every country “is complex, if not impossible, their combined effects can be proxied by computing the tariff level consistent with driving bilateral trade deficits to zero.” To arrive at the appropriate tariff rate, USTR said it divided the size of a country’s trade imbalance with the U.S. in goods by how much America imports in goods from that nation. A White House spokesperson told us Trump increased the tariff rate on Switzerland to 39% because “that was the rate that the President decided based on consultations with his trade and economic team that considered, among other factors, Switzerland’s relative trade deficit, seriousness in trade negotiations, and the fact that Switzerland is one of the world’s wealthiest, highest income countries.” In response to Trump’s announcement of a 39% tariff, the Swiss government said in an Aug. 4 press release, “Switzerland’s trade surplus to March 2025 is not the result of any ‘unfair trade practices’. In fact, Switzerland unilaterally scrapped all tariffs on industrial goods as of 1 January 2024, meaning over 99% of US goods enter Switzerland tariff-free.” The Swiss government also said it was planning to continue negotiations on a trade deal with the U.S. and “present a more attractive offer” before the tariff was scheduled to take effect on Aug. 7. Distorting Trade Balances With Other Countries Switzerland is not the only example where Trump misrepresented the overall trade deficit with another nation. At a Jan. 7 press event at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said, “European Union, we have a trade deficit of $350 billion.” But in 2024, the U.S. exported $666.7 billion in goods and services to the EU, while it imported more than $815.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of about $148.4 billion, as we’ve written. In negotiating an agreement with the EU in July that imposed a 15% tariff

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No Evidence for Trump’s Claims of ‘Rigged’ or ‘Phony’ Job Numbers

Este artículo estará disponible en español en El Tiempo Latino. Hours after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment data showing slow job growth for July and prior months, President Donald Trump fired the BLS commissioner, claiming the job numbers were “phony” and that the commissioner had “faked” other job figures to help Democrats. There’s no evidence the commissioner, or others at BLS, manipulated the data, and Trump hasn’t provided any. The Frances Perkins Department of Labor building on Aug. 4. Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images. The president’s timeline on past BLS announcements supposedly attempting to aid Democrats in the 2024 election is also incorrect. Trump’s claims echo his past baseless assertions that the Biden administration had manipulated data on jobs. Last August, he claimed an annual revision of BLS figures was a “total lie.” Kathy Utgoff, a former BLS commissioner who was appointed by President George W. Bush, told us in a phone interview that commissioners “can’t rig the numbers. … The commissioner has no ability to change the numbers that come out of computers at the last minute.” BLS staffers “hand the commissioner the press release with the numbers in it” 36 hours before the jobs report is announced. Utgoff told us that the only thing the commissioner could do is adjust the wording in the press release, and the goal is to “try to be boring” with that language. William Beach, another former BLS commissioner, who was appointed by Trump in 2019, described the process the same way in an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “By the time the commissioner sees the numbers, they’re all prepared. They’re locked into the computer system,” he said in the Aug. 3 interview. BLS produces statistical data on employment, wages, inflation and more, and its work has long been viewed as nonpartisan. “The rank and file of the BLS and the other statistical agencies are deeply imbued with the importance of independence,” David Wilcox, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and director of U.S. economic research at Bloomberg Economics, told us in an email. “They understand to their core the importance of delivering the best possible estimates, even if and when the message is inconvenient for the president and his team.” BLS’ press releases are dry. The Aug. 1 press release, issued at 8:30 a.m., stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July.” At the bottom of the release, BLS noted sizable revisions for the prior two months. “Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)” The employment data now show the economy has added 486,000 jobs during Trump’s second term, a growth rate of 0.3%. Over the same time period last year, the U.S. added 954,000 jobs, or 0.6%. The monthly job estimates typically are released the first Friday of each month, based on what’s called the “establishment survey,” a survey of about 121,000 employers that covers about 30% of U.S. employment. After the BLS report was released, Stephen Miran, chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, gave a few reasons for the employment data. He told reporters that “about 60% of the overall revisions were due to quirks of the seasonal adjustment process, changes to seasonal adjustments,” saying that teachers, for example, factor into those seasonal calculations. Miran also said there was uncertainty about tariffs and the Republican tax bill that could have caused some firms to “hold off” on investments. “That’s totally reasonable and absolutely something that you would expect,” he said, adding that the “uncertainty is resolved” so “we expect things to get materially stronger.” But after Miran’s comments, in a 2:09 p.m. Truth Social post, Trump announced that BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer would be fired immediately. The president claimed McEntarfer “faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory,” and he questioned the most recent job figures. He pointed out that McEntarfer was appointed by Biden. McEntarfer, an economist who worked in the federal government for more than 20 years, was confirmed for a four-year term on Jan. 11, 2024, by an 86-8 bipartisan Senate vote. Among those who voted to approve her were now Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In remarks to reporters on Aug. 1, Trump said he fired McEntarfer because “I think her numbers were wrong,” calling the BLS job statistics released that day “phony.” In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump claimed that the latest jobs report and pre-election figures were all “Rigged.” The administration hasn’t produced any evidence for Trump’s claims. The White House has pointed to revisions that BLS has made to job numbers under McEntarfer’s leadership. But that’s not evidence of any manipulation. “Revisions are not mistakes, they are improvements,” Utgoff said. The BLS routinely revises its figures as more information is gathered, the agency explains on its website. The monthly job estimates are revised twice as more payroll data are collected, and then a full year’s worth of figures are updated in what BLS calls its annual “benchmarking” process. While noting that the revisions to May and June job figures were “big,” Beach, on CNN, said that “every time we publish on Friday, there are revisions to the previous two months. This is a survey. And a survey has sample returns.” Similarly, Wilcox told us that the revisions “are indeed larger than normal. The fact that that

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Trump Offers No Evidence for Claim About Bill Clinton and Epstein Island

Former President Bill Clinton flew multiple times on airplanes belonging to the late Jeffrey Epstein. But there is no evidence that Clinton visited the convicted sex offender’s private island in the U.S. Virgin Islands “28 times,” as President Donald Trump has claimed. In a 2019 statement posted on social media, a spokesman for Clinton acknowledged that he traveled on Epstein’s planes during several international trips in 2002 and 2003, when he was no longer president. However, the statement said that Clinton never went to the Caribbean island that was Epstein’s primary residence. But in recent interviews, Trump – who has been under public pressure to release files related to Epstein’s crimes – invoked Clinton’s connection to Epstein as Trump responded to questions from reporters about his own past friendship with the disgraced financier who was arrested on charges of sex trafficking of minors in July 2019 and died in prison a month later. The Justice Department concluded Epstein committed suicide. The federal indictment alleged that Epstein “sexually exploited and abused dozens of underage girls by enticing them to engage in sex acts with him in exchange for money,” between 2002 and 2005, the Justice Department said at the time. Epstein’s island was alleged to have acted as a hub for the sex trafficking of young women and underaged girls. “And by the way, I never went to the island, and Bill Clinton went there, supposedly, 28 times,” Trump said when answering questions about Epstein while in Scotland on July 28.  Days earlier, during a July 25 press gaggle outside the White House, Trump made the same claim about Clinton when a reporter asked Trump if he was considering pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell, who is serving 20 years in prison for sex trafficking conspiracy charges and transporting minors to engage in sex acts with Epstein. Maxwell was recently interviewed by Justice Department officials, and she has offered to testify about Epstein before Congress in exchange for an immunity deal or clemency from the president.  “Well, I don’t want to talk about that,” Trump said to the reporter who asked. “You ought to be speaking about Bill Clinton, who went to the island 28 times. I never went to the island.” We asked the White House for the source of Trump’s recent claim about Clinton, but we have not received an answer. Trump may be incorrectly referring to the number of times that Clinton traveled on Epstein’s planes. In August 2019, Trump’s claim was that Clinton “was on his plane 27 times” — not that he had been to the island that often. As we wrote in an article at that time, Clinton was on an Epstein plane 26 times during six trips between Feb. 9, 2002, and Nov. 4, 2003. That’s according to flight logs that were unsealed as part of a lawsuit brought by one of Epstein’s accusers. There were 26 flights because some of the six trips included multiple stops. Clinton traveled to places such as London, Hong Kong, Oslo, Beijing and several African countries. But in that same article, we said: “There is no evidence that Clinton visited Epstein’s private island in the Caribbean. None of the flight logs list Clinton as a passenger on a Virgin Islands-bound plane.” Business Insider later reported in July 2020 that Virginia Giuffre, one of Epstein’s victims, who died by suicide this year, wrote in an unpublished memoir, which was unsealed as part of a lawsuit against Maxwell, that she saw Clinton on the island. Also, one of Clinton’s former aides, Doug Band, told Vanity Fair for a December 2020 story that Clinton once visited the island in January 2003. But in a July 2019 statement, Clinton’s office, while acknowledging his multiple trips on Epstein’s planes, said that Clinton “has never been to Little St. James Island.” The statement said that Clinton “knows nothing about the terrible crimes Jeffrey Epstein pleaded guilty to in Florida some years ago, or those with which he has been recently charged in New York.” We’d note that Trump also was a guest on Epstein’s planes, taking at least seven flights with him during the 1990s, according to flight logs released during Maxwell’s trial. But as with Clinton, those logs do not indicate that Trump ever flew to Epstein’s private island. Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, P.O. Box 58100, Philadelphia, PA 19102.  The post Trump Offers No Evidence for Claim About Bill Clinton and Epstein Island appeared first on FactCheck.org.

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Are Prices Up or Down? Parsing Misleading Claims by Trump and Democrats

Este artículo estará disponible en español en El Tiempo Latino. About six months into the second term of President Donald Trump, Republicans and Democrats are making conflicting and often misleading assessments of the Trump administration’s impact on inflation and prices. Both sides cherry-pick examples of consumer products to support their claims, while sometimes wrongly taking credit for lower prices or falsely casting blame for rising costs. Experts say the reasons for the rise or fall of prices usually involve a number of factors beyond the policies implemented in the first six months of the current administration, and predictions of success or failure of those policies, including tariffs, are still to be determined. “The economy is roaring, business confidence is soaring, incomes are up, prices are down and inflation is dead, it’s dead,” Trump proclaimed at the White House Faith Office luncheon on July 14. At a news briefing the same day, Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries offered a different portrait of the American economy. “Costs aren’t going down in the United States of America, costs are going up,” he said. “America is too expensive. And things aren’t getting better under Donald Trump and House Republican rule, they’re getting worse.” Inflation, a major theme of the 2024 election, had increased substantially during the first half of President Joe Biden’s term, due largely to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the 12-month period ending in June 2022, the Consumer Price Index increased 9.1% – “the largest 12-month change since the period ending November 1981,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The annual CPI moderated to below 3% for the six months before Trump returned to the White House, as we’ve written. It was 3% for the 12 months ending in January. Contrary to Trump’s claim, not all prices are “down” and inflation isn’t “dead.” Based on the CPI, the inflation rate was 2.7% for the 12 months ending in June, and was up 0.8% from January to June. Core inflation, which doesn’t include the categories of food and energy, rose 2.9% from June 2024. In January, annual core inflation was 3.3%. Not all costs are “going up,” either, as Jeffries suggested. We reached out to the White House for information to support Trump’s statements, but we did not receive a response. We also asked Jeffries’ office for support for his statements, and his office said it would “let the Leader’s comments on the record speak for themselves.” Jeffries’ office also noted the rise in the CPI in June and increases in prices for groceries, beef and other specific items. In this story we’ll examine recent changes in the prices of some of the products Republican and Democratic leaders cite as bellwethers of the economic climate. Groceries At a campaign event on Aug. 15, 2024, at his golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey, Trump spotlighted the high cost of food under the Biden administration. Surrounded by staged displays of groceries, Trump said, “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down.” Then, in an interview in the Dec. 30 issue of Time magazine, Trump backpedaled on his pledge regarding grocery prices. “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up,” he said. “You know, it’s very hard.” Yet, during a White House lunch with the presidents of West African nations on July 9, Trump responded to a reporter’s question about the impact of his economic policies, saying, “I brought down the cost of groceries. I brought down the cost of energy, tremendously energy, tremendously groceries.” Also on July 9, in an interview on MSNBC, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin said Trump “ran on lowering costs for people. That was the issue last year. And now every action he’s taking appears to be raising costs for families, whether that’s food at the grocery store.” Baldwin added later, “we need to make sure that … the public is crystal clear about why their grocery bill isn’t going down, but is in fact going up.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI for “food-at-home” — products bought at a grocery store or supermarket — increased from January to June by 0.6%, and was up 2.4% from June 2024. The USDA’s Economic Research Service in July estimated that for 2025, “Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 2.2 percent,” the midpoint of an estimated range of 1.1% to 3.4%. “Grocery prices have been accelerating,” Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale University, told us via email. “Grocery prices overall are literally up over the last five months.” “On the other hand, a little bit of grocery inflation is typical, and it’s not clear that the president has much to do with recent grocery price dynamics,” Tedeschi said, noting the impact of climate and disease on the prices of beef and eggs in recent years. “On the third hand, while presidents have very few levers to actually affect prices, one they do have is tariffs, and tariffs have gone up considerably this year, from a 2.4% average effective tariff rate in January,” Tedeschi said, to an average effective tariff rate of 20.6% as of July 14, according to the Budget Lab. Due to Trump’s tariffs, “Over the next year or two, we think food prices will rise 3.7% more than otherwise, and stay 3.2% higher over the longer-run (5-10 years),” he said. Eggs At the summit with West African leaders on July 9, Trump said his administration had brought down the price of eggs since January. “If you remember my first week in office, the press was screaming at me about the cost of eggs. They were four times higher than they were just a short time ago. That was caused by Biden and stupid policies, and we got that down. And by Easter, it was normalized and now it’s actually even at a lower price,” the president said. The nationwide average price for a dozen grade A white eggs paid by consumers declined from $4.95 in January to $3.78 in June, a 23.8% decrease,

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