President Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants the 2026 midterms to be rigged in the GOP’s favor.
Speaking to Texas Republicans Tuesday morning, Trump outlined his redistricting wishlist: five new GOP congressional seats in Texas alone. The plan would significantly reshape the House, where Republicans currently hold one of the narrowest majorities in history.
“I keep hearing about Texas ‘going Blue,’ but it is just another Democrat LIE. With the right candidate, Texas isn’t ‘going Blue’ anytime soon!” he wrote on Truth Social.
To secure those extra seats, Trump has a key ally in Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who scheduled redistricting for a special legislative session beginning July 21. The plan, which Democrats have called a blatant power grab, appears to aim at flipping two competitive South Texas districts and dismantling seven urban, heavily Democratic ones.
Despite Trump winning just 56% of the vote in Texas in 2024, Republicans already hold two-thirds of House seats there. The 2021 map—one of the most gerrymandered in the country—created two new districts in majority white areas, even though people of color made up 95% of the state’s population growth.
And now they’re going even further. The Department of Justice recently sent a letter to Abbott and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton suggesting that 4 existing Democratic districts may have been drawn using unconstitutional racial gerrymandering—a sharp reversal from the Biden-era DOJ, which backed a lawsuit claiming that the map diluted minority representation.
GOP Sen. John Cornyn of Texas praised the move, writing that Hispanic voters have shifted rapidly toward the Republican Party and that redrawing the maps would lead to major GOP gains.
But this is a risky strategy. Texas’ current map already maximizes GOP gains. Adding more Republican districts could carve up safe GOP territory, force incumbents into costly primaries, or cause early retirements. Finding five new red seats might require weakening current Republican strongholds.
Even if it succeeds, it might not matter. Republicans gaining five seats in Texas wouldn’t come close to offsetting potential national losses. Trump’s first midterm in 2018 saw Democrats gain 41 seats. A similar result in 2026 would negate any advantage gained through redistricting.
Meanwhile, Trump’s support in Texas is slipping. A June poll from the Texas Politics Project found that a majority of Texans disapprove of him, with 44% saying they strongly disapprove, and just 27% saying they strongly approve.
As Trump works on his map-rigging strategy, Republicans are still searching for a national message to promote their sweeping economic agenda, which cuts Medicaid and food aid to deliver tax cuts to the wealthy. Strategists are now pushing “Trump Working Family Tax Cuts” and highlighting popular items like eliminating taxes on tips to win back moderate Trump voters.
But Democrats are not staying silent. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has hinted at a countereffort, though it’s unclear whether state law grants him the authority to act.
“Two can play this game,” he wrote on X.
Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff of California warned, too, that if red states keep bending the rules, blue states may be forced to respond similarly.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Texas Democrats held a press conference Tuesday morning to condemn the “aggressive and egregious gerrymander,” calling it a move to “disenfranchise millions of people in Texas.”
DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene also pointed out the irony that redrawing the map could actually cost Republicans voters.
“It’s basic math,” she said.
Trump may view redistricting as his insurance policy, but it only works if Republicans win. If they stumble in 2026, no map—no matter how rigged—will be enough.