There are two governor’s races this November: New Jersey and Virginia. Both are open-seat contests, with Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in New Jersey and Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in Virginia reaching their term limits.
These are both blue states, though they swung significantly to the right in 2024. New Jersey went from +16 Biden in 2020 to just +6 in 2024, and Virginia dropped from +10 to +6. Republicans hope those trends continue, but … good luck with that.
President Donald Trump’s national approval rating is falling, and political data analyst G. Elliott Morris estimates that he’s 17 points underwater in both New Jersey and Virginia. Worse for Republicans, their party’s signature achievement—the so-called One Big, Beautiful Bill, which is now law—has polling numbers that are downright toxic.
Support: 35%
Oppose: 53%
Support: 29%
Oppose: 55%
Support: 38%
Oppose: 59%
Those are national numbers, buoyed by deep-red states. In New Jersey and Virginia, support is likely even weaker. So what are Republican gubernatorial candidates to do, knowing that they need to overperform their states’ partisan lean just to compete?
In New Jersey, Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli is going all in. In a July 4 video, he forcefully defended the law, pushing the lie that its tax benefits trickle down past the billionaire class. He also tried to spin Medicaid cuts as only affecting working-age adults and undocumented immigrants—a line Republicans have unsuccessfully leaned on, given the law’s overwhelming unpopularity.
Indeed, Ciattarelli has spent months rallying Republicans behind this deficit-busting, social safety net-gutting legislation. Back in May, as he fended off a primary challenger, he told a radio host that all Republicans must support it.
“Shame on any Republican across the country that doesn’t support this. The president supports this. I’d be calling every one of our 14 members of the Congress … to make sure they’re voting yes on this. And if they’re not, I’d be letting the people of New Jersey know that they’re not,” he said.
Ciattarelli’s facing Democratic nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor who has won tough House races in the suburbs and is now running on affordability, health care, and opposition to Trump’s agenda.
In Virginia, GOP nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears struck a similar tone, telling Newsmax that the law “does so many great things,” all while hugging Trump and his agenda tightly.
She’s up against Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and centrist congresswoman who flipped a red district in 2018—the one represented by former GOP House Leader Eric Cantor. As a disciplined, no-nonsense candidate, the contrast couldn’t be starker.
November’s results will be closely monitored by nervous Republicans. Two high-profile figures—Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska and Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina—have already announced their retirements. Now, all eyes are on Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa and whether she’ll run for reelection.
The size of Democratic victories in New Jersey and Virginia will shape how many Republicans flee. The bigger the wins, the more GOP incumbents will head for the exits. And there’s no bigger advantage in politics than incumbency.
The more open seats Republicans are forced to defend next year, the higher the odds of a blue wave.