A widely reported Yale University poll on American youth made waves with a shocking finding: When asked whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their 2026 congressional district, voters aged 22 to 29 favored Democrats by 6.4 points—but voters 18 to 21 favored Republicans by 11.7 points.
The toplines shake out like this:
18 to 21-year-olds: 46% Republican, 35% Democrat
22 to 29-year-olds: 47% Democrat, 41% Republican
It’s a startling generational split, and one that makes sense, given recent history. During the COVID lockdowns of 2020, today’s 18 to 21 cohort were teenagers. I have a 21-year-old myself, so I know firsthand what it was like for them to lose those critical time. It’s no wonder that disruption radicalized many in unexpected ways, especially with Republicans loudly railing against lockdowns from the start.
Data scientist David Shor, speaking on Ezra Klein’s podcast, claimed that among 18-year-olds, “women of color are the only group Harris won,” and that “Trump narrowly won nonwhite men.” But that narrative hasn’t gone unchallenged. Caroline Soler, Brian Schaffner, and Stephen Ansolabehere of the Tufts Opinion Lab—and others—have thrown cold water on it, pointing to exit polls and the well-documented difficulty of accurately polling young adults. (For example, young conservatives, in particular, often lie about having actually voted—perfectly in line with a political culture steeped in gaslighting.)
Still, the broader trend is clear: Donald Trump did make inroads among young voters, especially young men. Joe Biden won 18 to 29-year-olds by a margin of 60–36 in 2020. Kamala Harris only won them by 54–43 last year—a net 13-point swing toward Republicans. In a 50-50 nation, that’s a major chunk of Trump’s margin right there.
It’s important to remember that the youngest 18 to 21 cohort were just 14 to 17 years old when Trump left office, and only 10 to 13 when he was first elected. They never truly experienced the chaos, the incompetence, and the stark malevolence of a Trump presidency. For most, those weren’t politically aware years. If anyone gets a pass for voting for Trump this time around, it’s those kids.
But they’re getting a close look now, and they hate what they’re seeing.
A new Pew Research poll shows young voters are the most dissatisfied with Trump’s first 100 days. His 36–63 approval rating among 18 to 29-year-olds is the worst of any age group, with nearly half—49%—“very strongly” disapproving.
Data analyst G. Elliot Morris, in his Substack, aggregated April polling data to track voter sentiment shifts compared to the 2024 election results, and the findings were staggering. Among 18 to 29-year-olds, Trump’s net approval dropped from -4 to -27—a 23-point collapse. For context, it was -11 among 30 to 44-year-olds, -7 among 45 to 64-year-olds, and -11 among those 65 and older.
Young voters are abandoning Trump harder and faster than any other demographic.
It’s not hard to figure out why. For a group that hadn’t seen firsthand how noxious Trump’s leadership was in his first term, it was easy to believe he might be better on issues like Gaza than Harris. Instead, they got Trump proposing ethnic cleansing in Gaza and posting an AI-generated video of gaudy Trump casinos with golden Trump statues lining the Gaza Strip.
Related | Even MAGA minions are disgusted by Trump’s sick AI fantasy of Gaza
Young voters, just entering the workforce, are already more economically insecure than older generations. Inflation hits them harder. Trump promised lower prices “on day one”—a promise he immediately broke—and instead, he’s lighting the global economy on fire with reckless tariffs and economic sabotage.
It gets worse. Young adults oppose deportations by a 49–38 margin, according to that Yale poll. But when asked about Trump’s current student deportations for ideological reasons, young voters oppose it by a stunning 78%. They were already more pro-Ukraine than older voters, and now they’re watching Trump cozy up to Vladimir Putin’s murderous regime. And only 15% of young adults support Trump’s tariffs—a key driver of the inflation they are feeling.
And remember: We’re still just in Trump’s first 100 days, a traditional “honeymoon” period when presidents usually enjoy broad goodwill. Things are about to get much worse for Trump as his policies bite, inflation rises, and his toxic style dominates social media feeds.
With key influencers like Joe Rogan and David Portnoy turning on Trump, there’s real hope that young voters will fully return to the Democratic fold. But we can’t expect them to fully embrace the Democratic Party as long as it’s led by dinosaurs like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. We need a generational change in leadership to meet young voters where they are—and build a truly lasting majority.